BYU Football: The tale of the turnovers

BYU Football’s swing in records between 2016, 2017, and 2018 closely mirrors one major stat for the Cougars: turnovers.

It’s been a rollercoaster couple of seasons for BYU Football.

In 2016, Kalani Sitake’s first season as head coach, the Cougars finished 9-4, including wins over Arizona, Michigan State, and Mississippi State.

Then the bottom fell out in 2017. That record flipped to 4-9, including embarrassing losses to UMass, East Carolina, and Utah State.

Now the Cougars are 3-1 and ranked No. 20 in the nation. It’s nearly a lock that this team will be improved record-wise over 2017 (knocks on wood).

So what happened in 2017?

Bad coaching? Sure, that plays a big part, although the same coaching staff that failed in 2017 succeeded in 2016. Of course they also had three major NFL talents leading the way in 2016 (Taysom Hill, Jamaal Williams, Kai Nacua).

Injuries? Sure, BYU had more than its fair share of injuries last season, especially the revolving carousel at quarterback, but injuries are a part of life.

Both of those play a big part in the dip, and with the new coaching staff and better health so far (knock on wood again) the Cougars are off to a strong start this year.

But another area paints a pretty stark picture as to what happened over the last two-and-a-half-ish seasons.

The Turnover Swing

In 2016, BYU Football was a turnover-creating machine. They picked off opponents 21 times and forced 10 fumbles, finishing as one of the top teams in the nation with 31 takeaways.

The Cougars weren’t great at limiting their own turnovers that season, turning it over 19 times themselves (12 interceptions, 9 fumbles), but their turnover margin was one of the best in the country.

That wasn’t the case in 2017. They only forced 17 turnovers and turned it over 27 times.

Yes, coaching and injuries both played a part in that, but with a turnover margin swing that big, it’s no wonder that the Cougars’ record swung the same way.

Righting the Ship

How about this year?

So far, BYU has forced 8 turnovers (four picks, four fumbles) and only coughed it up three times (two picks, one fumble). So is it any wonder that, to this point at least, the Cougars’ record more closely mirrors their 2016 one?

Not at all. In fact, let’s look at where BYU ranked/ranks nationally in turnover margin:

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• 2016 = 1.2 (T-2nd nationally)
• 2017 = -0.9 (119th nationally)
• 2018 = 1.25 (T-12 nationally)

And win percentage:

• 2016 = 69.2% (9-4)
• 2017 = 30.8% (4-9)
• 2018 = 75% (3-1)

That’s some pretty strong correlation right there. You could even argue for causation.

Which means it’s safe to say that if the Cougars continue to win the turnover battle throughout the rest of the season they’ll end up with a solid record similar to 2016’s.

Now where’s some more wood to knock on?