I'm not a gambling man... but maybe just this once...
FanDuel has set BYU's win/loss line at 4.5 wins for this 2024 season. To an unbiased observer, that would make plenty of sense. The Cougars are still figuring out how to play in the Big XII and struggled to win 5 games last season in their first year as a Big XII school. They are losing starting quarterback Kedon Slovis and don't have a clear replacement to fill his shoes. Overall, the situation would likely get worse for the Cougs before it gets better... Right?
I think by looking at the upcoming schedule, we should have a good idea of what fans should reasonably expect when it comes to BYU's potential. We can organize games into likely wins, likely losses, and toss-ups to determine where those wins should come from, and see if bowl eligibility is the pipe dream that FanDuel believes it to be.
Likely Wins
First of all, a guaranteed win doesn't exist in football. If it did, that would take all the fun out of the sport. Though we may look at the game against Southern Illinois and think that the Cougs will cruise to an easy win, I'm sure that other schools look at their matchup against the Cougars as a predetermined W, too. Yet, we still tune into every game knowing that whatever happens on the field could shock the nation. That being said, the following games should be BYU wins.
- Home - Southern Illinois: SIU is an FCS school and essentially a scheduled win. While not impossible, an FBS loss to an FCS school is rare, especially for a school in a power conference.
- Away - Southern Methodist: SMU will be a new member of the ACC and had a great season last year, finishing in the top 25. SMU beat up on weaker AAC competition but lost both Power 5 contests against TCU and Boston College.
- Away - Wyoming: Though playing the game in Laramie does concern me (Wyoming went 7-0 last season at home), BYU should pick up a win here. They'll need to be careful, though, as Wyoming stunned Texas Tech in Laramie early last season.
- Away - Baylor: The Bears haven't been the same team since losing to BYU in Provo 2 years ago. A team that was considered to be top-10 dropped to a 6-win team in 2022 and a 3-win team last season. While BYU will also struggle, I expect BYU to win in Waco.
- Away - Arizona State: The former member of the Pac-12 (may it rest in peace) has also struggled to find success recently, going 3-9 last season. The Sun Devils hope to find a new identity in its new conference, but it may be a few years before they become a winning team again.
Toss-Ups
These are the games that I feel a loss is just as likely of a result as a win--a coin toss if you will. You can take this as me trying to temper my expectations, or you can take this as a surplus of optimism. The way I see it, BYU likely wins one or two of these games, but not all. You'll get a lot of enjoyment out of these games if you cheer for a good game.
- Home - Kansas State: The Wildcats are a great football team that is always a threat to compete for the Big XII championship. BYU tends to start the season strong and win a few surprise games before they plateau, and if this is a night game in Provo, the Wildcats could be in trouble.
- Away - Central Florida: The Knights could break out as Big XII contenders at any time. The 2017 National Champions have the potential to break out this season, despite their sub-.500 record last season. Central Florida should be improved and frightening, but if BYU is going to steal a conference away game, this is the one.
- Home - Houston: The Houston Cougars are in a similar position as BYU. A new member of the Big XII hoping to pull together a few big wins. Unfortunately, Houston's inaugural season in their new conference was even worse than the Provo Cougars', as they finished second-to-last in the Big XII standings. BYU often sputters down the stretch though, so I wouldn't be shocked if Houston steals a win here.
Likely Losses
Always cheer for a win, of course, but don't expect one in the following games. Whether it's the circumstances of the game, or the talent disparity between the two teams, I have a hard time predicting a BYU victory. Sorry Cougar fans, but Utah is on this list.
- Home - Arizona: The Wildcats are good again and proved that to the nation last season, with plenty of huge conference wins in the final season of the surprisingly awesome Pac-12. How they'll adapt to their new conference is yet to be seen, but BYU probably won't give them too many problems.
- Home - Oklahoma State: Everyone thought the Cowboys would struggle last season, but they played in the conference championship game against Texas. I'm still shell-shocked from BYU's collapse in Stillwater last season, and I don't see BYU winning this game.
- Away - Utah: This one hurts, but these two programs are in totally different places. Utah will be a contender for the conference championship, and BYU will be fighting for bowl eligibility. With rivalry games like this, you can never be certain, but a BYU victory in the Holy War would be shocking.
- Home - Kansas: The Jayhawks are legitimately great at football now. Jalon Daniels can put a game on his shoulders, and I see that happening in this one. Even though this game will be in Provo, Kansas has too much firepower and can comfortably win this one.
To wrap this all up, I expect BYU football to win at least 5 games. They could win an additional 3 games, and even pull off a huge upset to steal an extra game or two. Of course,
I've never been a gambler. I'm not comfortable putting my money at risk based on my feelings about sports--my ideas are terrible. But after looking over the Cougars' 2024 schedule, I'm going to sell my house, my car, the clothes off my back, and even my dog, and bet everything I have on the over. 5 wins is more than possible, and I expect this team to play with a chip on their shoulder--they have something to prove. We'll see who's right after this season: the multi-million dollar corporation whose entire business relies on making accurate predictions, or the random BYU fan who thinks the Cougars are better than FanDuel's robots say they are.