Way too early look at next BYU basketball season

If you’re anything like me you spent most of BYU’s first round loss to Duquesne screaming at your TV, pacing, and contemplating your fandom. There is no way to sugarcoat the outcome. It was a very disappointing end to an otherwise exciting season. Despite the discouraging outcome to the season, this team should be commended. They will be remembered for leading BYU into the Big 12 and sending a message that BYU is not just here to be a part of the conference but they are here to win. I feel there is reason to be very optimistic about the future of BYU hoops. Let's dig a bit deeper as to why.

Departures

The players we know that are for sure leaving the team are Spencer Johnson and Tredyn Christensen. Jaxon Robinson, the leading scorer for the team, was honored as a senior on Senior Night a few weeks ago but has hinted that he may return next season. This would be a massive addition to the team as Robinson won the Big 12’s 6th Man of the Year award and would bring experience and an ability to create his own shot that was missing in a few games this season. 

Marcus Adams Jr., a 4-star recruit who transferred to BYU after leaving Kansas then Gonzaga, has announced he is entering the transfer portal and will be leaving the team. Marcus’s father passed away recently and it is speculated that he will be transferring somewhere closer to home to help support his family. (Marcus retweeted the tweet below, seemingly supporting the claims made). We wish Marcus the very best in his basketball career.

With the new transfer portal rules it is expected that a few other players from this year’s time will exit to find an opportunity to play somewhere else. It appears that the central core of players at BYU are committed to staying in Provo especially considering the success of the team this year and the spotlight that is on the Big 12 as the premier conference in college basketball. Of course NIL money and new opportunities can change things but for the sake of this conversation we’ll assume that all of the players who logged significant minutes this year who aren’t graduating, are returning. 

New Additions

The most exciting arrival for this BYU team will be freshman Collin Chandler. Collin will return home from his mission in Sierra Leon in the next few weeks and then is expected to join the team. Collin was ranked the 33rd-best recruit in the 2022 recruiting class and is the highest-rated recruit BYU has ever signed. Collin is a stellar athlete who has competed with the best high school players in the country and will look to make a significant impact on the team next year. The excitement around him is palpable and I think he will be a massive addition to the team.

Maybe a slightly forgotten addition to the team is Dawson Baker. Dawson averaged over 15 points a game last year for UC Irvine and is a player who can come in and create his own shots. He looked confident and smooth in the few games he played this season before undergoing foot surgery. He will retain 2 years of eligibility once he returns to action. To me, he will be an extremely valuable piece for the Cougars who, at times, have lacked a way to score outside of set plays. He can give the team that skillset.

Other newcomers include Isaac Davis and Brooks Bahr. Davis is a 3 star recruit out of Idaho Falls, Idaho, and Bahr is a 3-star recruit out of Keller, Texas. Davis is an explosive athlete and was ranked as the best player coming out of Idaho this year. Bahr is a methodical scorer who had offers from USC, Utah, and Wake Forest before deciding on BYU. Both of these guys have the potential to be significant additions to the team in the long-term.

With Marcus Adams Jr. leaving that will open up another scholarship spot for Mark Pope and company to search in the transfer portal for another player who can come in and contribute to the team. I expect the Cougars to continue to recruit hard in the transfer portal as they have in the past.

Conference Outlook

BYU finished 5th in the Big 12 this season but the conference will look very different next year. Texas and Oklahoma will be leaving next year and the conference will be adding Arizona, Colorado, Arizona State, and Utah. Arizona won the Pac-12 regular season title and earned a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament. Colorado surprised many people by finishing 3rd in the conference and winning 2 games in the NCAA tournament as a 10 seed before narrowly losing to Marquette. Both those teams will be expected to succeed in the Big 12. The Utes appeared like an NCAA tournament lock for most of the season before falling apart toward the end of the season. However, they have made a run in the NIT and are in the quarterfinals. BYU played Arizona State this year and won by 28 points in a neutral game in Las Vegas. Arizona State is not a bad program as they scored 2 victories over Utah, a win over USC and Colorado, and a win over ranked Washington State. 

Add these new squads into an already juggernaut conference that includes elite teams like Houston, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, and Texas Tech and that makes for a pretty daunting conference schedule for BYU. Still, the team showed it has what it takes to compete in the Big 12 and looks to be one of the top teams in the conference next year. 

Conclusion

I feel that many people fail to account for the positive impact that continuity can have for a basketball team. Basketball is a very fluid and fast-paced sport where understanding your teammates and how they play can often heavily impact the outcome of a game. In the 2022-2023 season BYU finished in the bottom half of the WCC and 77th in the KenPom. Fast-forward to this season with basically the same team as last year plus only one significant transfer in Aly Khalifa and the Cougars finished in the top 5 of a loaded Big 12 and 19th in the KenPom. I feel the continuity these players have after playing together for multiple seasons will allow them to continue to grow and improve. I expect the team next year to be even better than the team was this year.

Additionally, I echo the point that was made on BYUSN:

BYU’s core players now have significant experience in both the difficult environment that is the Big 12, as well as in the NCAA tournament, that will allow them to shine in the bright moments next season. There were many growing and learning situations this season as the Cougars lost a few head-scratching games, most significantly the game against Duquesne. I believe the experience gained from this inaugural Big 12 season will have a massive payoff next season. I am very optimistic about the direction this team is headed and am planning for the team to be playing on the second weekend of March Madness in 2025.

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