Now that BYU has been eliminated from the Big 12 tournament, Selection Sunday is all Cougar fans can think about. We all know BYU is in the tournament, but what seed will they get, and who will they play? The dependable Joe Lunardi currently has BYU as a 6 seed, meaning they would play an 11 seed, possibly the winner of a First Four game. Based on where he put everyone else, here are the top 12 most likely opponents for BYU to face as of Friday afternoon, which is when I am writing this article:
12. Oklahoma
The Sooners are the first team out, and whether or not they make the tournament will likely depend on whether or not they beat Arkansas tonight, which is unlikely since they're a 7-point underdog. If they win, though, they will likely get an 11 seed, which would put them in a position to face BYU. I would be thrilled about this matchup because BYU missed their one opportunity to beat Oklahoma while they were in the Big 12, so it would be very satisfying to get another chance and win.
11. New Mexico
The Lobos are currently the third team out, but they also have an opportunity to work their way in if they can beat San Diego St, the fourth team out, in the MWC semifinals tonight. They're 2.5-point underdogs, so theoretically, they have a better chance than Oklahoma, and they would also probably be an 11 seed. The Lobos gave the Cougars a lot of trouble their last few years in the MWC, so beating them would be satisfying.
10. San Diego St
The Aztecs are in almost the exact same situation as the Lobos. The only reason I'm ranking San Diego St higher is that, as I said, they're a 2.5-point favorite against New Mexico and are thus slightly more likely to play their way in. It was disappointing when BYU stopped playing San Diego St every year, so reigniting that rivalry would be fun.
9. High Point
We already know the Panthers are in the tournament because they got the automatic bid by winning the Big South. Joe Lunardi currently has them as a 12 seed, so if they climb to an 11 seed, they could play BYU in a 6-11 game, or if BYU climbs to a 5 seed, they could play in a 5-12 game. This could be a scary match-up because teams at the top of the heap of automatic qualifiers from mid-major conferences are often a lot better than people assume they are.
8. McNeese State
The Cowboys are in the same boat as the Panthers. They're in because they won the Southland conference tournament, and they are also projected as a 12 seed. The only reason I ranked them ahead of High Point is because of location, meaning they're more likely to be in the same region as BYU. This would be an equally scary match-up.
7. NC State
Now, we're looking at one of the teams that Joe Lunardi currently has as a 10 seed. BYU could play one of these teams if they drop to 7 or if one of these teams drops to 11. Based on my experience, the committee is more likely to slide BYU down than up, in part because of their no Sunday play policy that they somehow haven't found a fairer way to accommodate. One of the 10 seeds is UCF, which we can safely rule out, and another is St Louis, which I left out because they still have to win two tough games to win the Atlantic 10 tournament and punch their ticket. Based on geography and the fact that it would be the third straight season the Cougars and Wolfpack would meet in a tournament, NC State is probably the less likely of the two remaining projected 10 seeds.
6. South Florida
The Bulls are a hard team to figure out where to rank. On the one hand, they're currently projected as one of the two 11 seeds that wouldn't be playing in the First Four. On the other hand, they still need to win two more games in the AAC tournament to punch their ticket, and even if they do, it's unlikely BYU and USF will be in the same regional because they're on opposite sides of the country. Hopefully, if BYU does play USF, it will be higher scoring than the 54-39 game in the Diamondhead Classic a few seasons ago.
5. Miami OH
The Redhawks are the other 11 seed not currently projected to play in the First Four. However, I'm not confident that they'll stay at 11 because they're one of the most controversial teams in the tournament. It all depends on how much the committee values overall record. If they remember that the object of the game is to score more points than your opponent and recognize that the Redhawks have done that in a higher percentage of their games than anyone else, they'll give them a much better seed than 11. But if they focus too much on how good Miami's opponents are and too little on how good they are themselves, as I suspect they might, they could leave the Redhawks out entirely. The only way BYU will play Miami-OH is if the committee does something in between.
4. Santa Clara
The Broncos actually gave Gonzaga and St Mary's a run for their money this season, finishing just a game behind the Zags and the Gaels, who tied for first. They are currently projected as a 10 seed, but they could easily fall to 11 based on their position in Joe Lunardi's Last Four Byes. Not only does this match-up make geographical sense, but it would feature two former conference rivals, and who doesn't love that? While the Cougars dominated the Broncos for the majority of the time they were in the WCC, the Broncos actually had BYU's number the last few seasons, so there would be some satisfaction in beating them.
3. Texas
The Longhorns are in a position opposite to that of Miami-OH. They need the committee not to pay attention to their overall record. They are currently the last team in, so all it will take for them to be knocked out will be one more bid stealer or the committee recognizing that the Big 12 is 16-6 against the SEC and that putting in more SEC teams than Big 12 teams, as Joe Lunardi projects they will, would make no sense at all. Still, if they do get in, a matchup between a new Big 12 team and a former Big 12 team would be both fun and informative about the direction the Big 12 has gone.
2. Missouri
According to Joe Lunardi, Missouri is the safest of the Last Four In, making them a likely 11 seed and a likely BYU opponent, but again, whether or not they will make it will depend on whether or not the committee overrates the SEC as much as expected. I would get more satisfaction from BYU beating an SEC team than a team from any other conference.
1. SMU
While the Mustangs are the second-to-last team out, I think they're safer than Missouri and Texas because there isn't as much controversy about where the ACC stands as there is about where the SEC stands. A matchup between two teams that recently joined a better conference would be awesome, and unlike last football season, the result of the game will actually matter in terms of which one will get a chance to play for the national title.
At the end of the day, anything is possible, except there is one thing that isn't: the committee making everyone happy. No matter what they do, someone will disagree with it, and that's OK. Let the friendly debates continue.