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BYU vs. Nevada Last Minute Predictions

By Mitch Harper

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BYU’s backs are against the wall tonight as they take on the Nevada Wolf Pack in a game where the Cougars are looking to avoid a three-game losing streak. Will they end this skid? Here are some last minute predictions for game day.

  • BYU’s defense will be in vintage “bend but don’t break” mode

Nevada quarterback Cody Fajardo is one of the better dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. Fajardo can air it out with the best of them, which is something that should make many around BYU happy.

With Jordan Johnson and Craig Bills both out, BYU is without some of their key players in the secondary. The secondary will become even more conservative than they already are with the potential of Fajardo beating them through the air.

BYU’s defense will give up yards, but they will prevent Nevada enough from scoring in the end zone.

  • Fred Warner and Sione Takitaki will combine for three sacks

Warner and Takitaki were bright spots from last week’s loss at Central Florida. Warner, who replaced the injured Alani Fua in the starting lineup last week played very well along with Takitaki, both of which are true freshmen.

BYU’s pass rush last week in Orlando was the best we’ve seen since BYU faced UConn in week one, and the freshmen tandem of Warner and Takitaki were a key catalyst behind that. I expect these two to combine for three sacks tonight.

  • Christian Stewart airs it out

Opposing quarterbacks are tossing 71% completion rate against Nevada to this point of the season. If BYU can’t find success through the air against the Wolf Pack, will they ever?

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I would expect Stewart to have a good game tossing the football tonight, especially when you consider both running backs Jamaal Williams and Adam Hine are on the mend with ankle injuries. BYU will need to throw the football, and I expect Stewart to do that early and often.

  • WR Jordan Leslie gets two touchdown grabs

Leslie is starting to emerge as one of BYU’s leaders on this injury depleted team. Leslie is arguably BYU’s most reliable player on the offensive side of the ball that is healthy, but even Leslie is battling lingering affects from an ankle injury he suffered against Virginia.

The UTEP transfer has had a good year so far leading BYU in receiving yards with 383 and one touchdown grab. With how poor Nevada’s D is defending the pass, this will be Leslie’s game where he finds the end zone, not once, but twice.

  • Scott Arellano pins Nevada inside own 10 yard-line at least two times.

Overlooked during BYU’s methodical stretch the past few weeks has been the play of punter Scott Arellano. Arellano has made significant improvements from last season where he saw numerous punts getting block. This year Arellano is booming the ball at a 44.4 yard average.

As I mentioned earlier, Nevada is going to get yards tonight, but a key will be to avoid giving them short fields. If the Wolf Pack have to go 75, 80, or 90+ yards on a majority of their drives, the Wolf Pack won’t find the end zone often. Expect Arellano to swing the field position in BYU’s favor often tonight. I’m predicting at least two punts from Arellano go inside Nevada’s 10-yard line.

  • BYU 26, Nevada 21

I expect BYU’s passing offense to be very effective tonight, but I still struggle with the thought of this group putting up 30+ points. Nevada will hang around to keep this a very close game, and the Wolf Pack will have a shot to take the lead in the fourth quarter, but BYU finds a way to squeak out a win to clinch their bowl eligibility. Yes, I’m already counting Savannah State as a win.

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