BYU vs. Boise State Last Minute Predictions

It’s hard to remember a season for BYU that compares to this one. The 2014 Cougars were a team that was destined to become a team that was in the national spotlight for the entire year, but with poor coaching decisions, injuries, and a handful of other reasons, BYU finds themselves on a three-game losing streak heading into Boise.

Where do the Cougars go from here? Do they bounce back? There’s nothing on the line except pride at this point except a chance to go to Miami for their 10^th consecutive bowl appearance, but with Savannah State and UNLV on the docket, shouldn’t that be a given already? If not, there are bigger issues than what we see on the field.

BYU will continue to play on, and we will continue to watch the story unfold with this team. The odds are stacked against this squad to win on the blue turf, but can they pull out some BYU magic and find a way to win? Here are some of my predictions for tonight’s game.

• Defense will be better with Mendenhall having a bigger role in play calling

The coaching, the system, the execution has all had their failures with the defense the past month and a half. With Nick Howell under fire, all indications point to Mendenhall having a bigger role in decisions on the defense tonight against Boise State.

With Bronco having a bigger role, expect a better defensive performance. Two years ago, BYU held Boise State to seven points in a losing effort on the blue turf. The defense did everything two years ago to shut down the Broncos, but the offense didn’t hold their end of the bargain; will we see the same tonight?

For those thinking this will be a shootout, I wouldn’t count on that.

• BYU will hold Boise State under 30 points

The past four games BYU’s defense has given up more than 30 points, which is the first time that has happened in this program since 1993. This streak ends tonight against the Broncos. Boise will be close to 30, but the Cougars will hold Boise under that 30-point threshold.

• BYU’s offense will have less than 325 yards

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Last week’s offensive explosion with a bunch of second and third stringers against Nevada isn’t the true barometer for this unit as they are currently structured. Nevada had one of the worst defenses in the country, while Boise State has a solid front seven who always feel confident when they play on the blue turf.

BYU’s offense won’t be slinging it around like they did last week against the Wolf Pack.

• The team that commits fewer turnovers will win

Turnovers are going to be critical for this game. When you have two teams that are evenly matched, the turnover battle will be huge in the final outcome, BYU and Boise State is a classic case of that.

The last time BYU travelled to the blue turf, the Cougars were minus-five in the turnover battle and still had every opportunity to win that football game. This year would be a different story if BYU coughs up the football five times.

If BYU can force turnovers and give Christian Stewart short fields like they had against UCF two weeks ago, that will bode well for Stewart and this offense that is still looking to find itself.

• If Jamaal Williams plays, still give carries to Paul Lasike and Nate Carter

With Williams’ status being a game-time decision, the only two running backs that are for sure going to play for BYU are Paul Lasike and Nate Carter. If Williams does play, the Cougars still need to give Lasike and the scrappy Carter carries. Carter was terrific last week against Nevada going off for 12 yards per carry on seven carries that was far too low with how much success he was having.

The running game will be critical to BYU’s success.

• Boise State 29, BYU 20

Without a fiery competitor like Taysom Hill, I still wonder whom BYU turns to on this team when a game is on the line. This was always a game with or without Hill that folks circled on the schedule and had concern, but now BYU is a clear underdog. If they could pull it off, it would be one of the better coaching comebacks for Mendenhall in his tenure (a la San Diego State 2010). But I see BYU falling short and dropping their fourth straight game for the first time since 2010.