It’s February, which means we can officially start calling teams on the bubble at this point. While BYU is on the wrong side of the bubble as of now, they are not totally dead as of it yet. Here is a breakdown of our hopes for a BYU at large bid:
Positives:
BYU scheduled well in non-conference play. BYU saw first-hand last year how much the committee rewards teams that test themselves with a challenging non-conference slate. Even though BYU lost some of those big games last season, the fact that they played them was a big positive for the Cougars. This year’s slate included games against San Diego State, Purdue, Utah, Stanford, and Umass. As of now, the Stanford and Umass are both in the top 50 of the RPI. If that holds, that would match the number of top-50 non-conference RPI wins that the Cougars had last season. Those wins were against Stanford (on the road) and versus Texas (neutral site).
Dec 21, 2013; Eugene, OR, USA; Brigham Young Cougars head coach Dave Rose watches the game from the sideline against the Oregon Ducks at Matthew Knight Arena. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports
Another positive the Cougars have going for them is the frailty of the bubble. The bubble has been weak in recent seasons, and it is especially weak this season. The fact that a team like Michigan, who suffered losses to Eastern Michigan and New Jersey institute of Technology and has no top 50 RPI wins , is even getting consideration at this point is evidence of the weak bubble. Granted, most of the bubble teams have stronger resumes than BYU, but if BYU goes on a hot streak for the next month those other teams will lose, which will consequently close the gap between the quality of resumes.
Negatives:
BYU has not helped themselves very much during conference play. While BYU took four bad losses last season in-conference, they also performed very well against the top teams in the WCC. BYU had a regular season mark of 5-1 against the top teams in conference (sweeps of San Francisco and St Mary’s, split of Gonzaga). A little over halfway through conference play this year, BYU is 0-3 against the top teams in the WCC (Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, and Pepperdine). BYU will need to beat both St. Mary’s and Pepperdine if they want to even have a sniff at an at-large berth.
BYU has also taken two bad losses thus far. While Pepperdine is a better team than their computer numbers would indicate, it was still a top 100 RPI loss in Provo. The other loss, at San Diego, was against a team that currently has a 176 RPI ranking.
In general, BYU has not come out on top against top competition. Here’s how BYU has fared against top teams in the RPI:
- vs RPI top 50: 2-3
- vs top 100: 3-5
- vs top 150: 4-6
- vs sub 150: 11-1
Those numbers simply are not good enough for an NCAA tournament team. While many of them have been games that BYU could have won, they ultimately show up as losses on paper. Even as a member of the West Coast Conference, BYU has played enough quality teams to garner a tournament spot. They just haven’t won enough of them.
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What it will take to get in:
Here are BYU’s 2 formulas for getting an at-large berth.
Win out until Gonzaga, get to the WCC Final, hope for carnage around the country.
This is BYU’s most likely path. BYU will be favored in every game up until Gonzaga. (The Pepperdine line will be close to a pick-em) While BYU has not had a conference streak of longer than 6 games since they’ve joined the WCC, they have the shooting prowess and star power to at least make a hot streak a possibility. With BYU’s lack of post production and likelihood to have poor shooting nights, it is a very tall task. BYU has already won 2 won in a row and have 6 games until the match-up versus Gonzaga. 2 of the next 3 games are against Pepperdine and St. Mary’s, so BYU will have a good idea in the next week and a half where they stand. Win those 2 and a road game at Portland would seem like the only other likely place to stumble. If BYU were win out until Gonzaga, that would put them a 2 or 3 seed in the WCC tournament. There they would have a chance at a top 75 RPI win over St. Mary’s and another match-up versus Gonzaga.
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Assuming the above scenario happens (I understand, it’s unlikely), BYU would be looking at a RPI in the low 40s and a 25-9 record. If Stanford and Umass hold on to their top 50 RPI rankings, I believe that would be enough for BYU to be dancing in March.
Prediction: NIT Bound
While BYU’s at-large hopes are not dead yet, I think it is too much to ask of this team to suddenly go on a role through the rest of conference play. If BYU had a healthy Nate Austin and Jamal Aytes we would be looking at a better team, but that is obviously not the case. As we have seen multiple times this year, lack of post production has killed the Cougars. I don’t see that fixing itself 24 games into the season. However, with one of the best players in school history in Tyler Haws and the triple double machine himself, Kyle Collinsworth, the Cougars will at least make a push the final month of the season.