Bubble Watch: An Update on BYU’s At-Large Bid

Selection Sunday is just one month away, and the Cougars find themselves sitting squarely on the bubble. As of Monday morning, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has BYU as the 7^th team out of the tournament. That notion seemed out of the question less then two weeks ago, when BYU squandered a 16 point lead to Pepperdine. But with a recent resurgence and the overall weakness of the bubble, BYU has found themselves back in the conversation for an at-large bid. Here’s an update of where BYU stands and some things to watch for this week (note: RPI numbers are from ESPN):

BYU top wins: Umass (37 RPI); Stanford (51 RPI)

Worst losses: San Diego (174 RPI); Pepperdine (2x) (131 RPI)

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Record vs RPI top 50: 1-3

Record vs RPI top 100: 3-5

Record vs RPI top 150: 5-7

Record vs RPI sub 150: 13-1

What to watch this week:

Umass: Though the Minutemen are on the outside looking in right now (Joe Lunardi has them as the 8^th team out), they have a good RPI and a huge week ahead of them. They have 2 big road games this week. On Wednesday, they travel to Rhode Island to take on the 69^th rated team in the RPI. Saturday is a huge match-up. Umass will travel to Richmond, VA to take on the 12^th rated team in the RPI, the VCU Rams. Two Umass wins would bolster their RPI and help BYU’s resume in the process. While Umass would likely pass BYU on the bubble pecking order, BYU would be passing more teams in the process by having a top 25 RPI win over the Minutemen.

Stanford: After a hot start in Pac-12 play, the Cardinal have found themselves on a bit of slide. They have lost 4 of 5 and now find themselves on the bubble. The good news for them is that they have a 3 game home stand coming up against teams in top 100 of the RPI (Cal, Oregon State, Oregon). Win those 3 games and they will feel pretty safe about their tourney chances. BYU’s cause will be helped if they have a win over a team safely in the tournament.

Other Bubble teams. Here are some key games involving bubble teams to keep an eye on this week. Teams in parentheses are teams that you should be rooting for in order to benefit BYU:

Monday February 16:

• Miami at Boston College (Boston College)

Tuesday February 17

• LSU at Texas A&M (toss-up, both bubble teams)
• St. John’s at Georgetown (Georgetown)

Wednesday February 18

Colorado State at Fresno State (Fresno State)

Jan 10, 2015; Provo, UT, USA; Brigham Young Cougars guard Tyler Haws (3) shoots the ball over Loyola Marymount Lions guard Chase Flint (23) during the second half at Marriott Center. Brigham Young Cougars won 85-72. Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

Boise State at UNLV (UNLV)

Thursday February 19

• St. Joseph’s at Dayton (St. Joe’s)
• Purdue at Indiana (Indiana)
• Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Mississippi State)

Saturday February 21

• Gonzaga at St Mary’s (either way)
• UCLA at Arizona (Arizona)
• Miami at Louisville (Louisville)
• Kansas St at Baylor (Baylor)
• Texas A&M at South Carolina (USC)
• Florida at LSU (Florida)
• Nevada at Boise State (UNR)
• Virginia Tech at NC State (VA Tech)

Sunday February 22

• Temple at Tulsa (Temple)
• Michigan State at Illinois (Michigan State)

If BYU takes care of business this Thursday against San Diego, they could find themselves moving up in the bubble pecking order. A win there sets up 2 huge road games next; at Portland and at Gonzaga. If BYU avoids losses to everyone not named Gonzaga, the Cougars have a chance to find themselves sitting on the right side of the bubble come March.