BYU Bubble Watch: Where do the Cougars Stand?
By Rob McCombs
With just days until Selection Sunday, BYU finds itself on the bubble after a setback to the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the WCC title game. While the Cougars would likely be in if the field of 68 if the teams were selected today, much can change between now and Selection Sunday. Here is a full breakdown of BYU’s tourney chances, as well as a guide to help you track bubble teams during the next week.
BYU resume: (all RPI numbers from ESPN)
Current RPI: 43
Best Wins (RPI numbers in parentheses): @Gonzaga (8), Stanford (59), St. Mary’s (72), Umass (73)
Worst Losses: Pepperdine (129; 2x), @San Diego (150)
Record vs D-1 opponents: 23-9
Record vs RPI top 50: 1-4
Record vs RPI top 100: 4-6
Road W-L: 8-3
What BYU needs to happen:
1. Stanford and Umass perform well, but not too well. BYU could use another top 50 win on their resume. The most likely team to provide that is Stanford. The Cardinal have chances to notch some quality wins in this week’s Pac-12 tournament. If the Cardinal win Thursday night over the Washington Huskies, they get the Utah Utes in the next round. While the Huskies won’t provide much of a bump, a win or loss over the Utes would bump their RPI. An upset over the Utes would undoubtedly put the Cardinal inside the top 50 threshold, but even a loss would get them close. If the Cardinal keep winning, however, and get victories over the Oregon Ducks and/or Arizona Wildcats, that could bump them over BYU in the bubble pecking order. So root for the Cardinal to have a solid week in Vegas, just not too good.
Another team to watch is Umass. The Minutemen have not done the Cougars any favors over the past month, but they have the opportunity to make some noise in the Atlantic 10 tournament. If the Minutemen go on a run and win their next three games, they have a chance to jump in the RPI top 50. Those victories could include top 50 RPI teams Davidson and VCU. While I would not expect this result, based on Umass’s subpar performance in the last month, it is worth keeping tabs on.
2. No Bid Thieves. BYU needs the top dogs in each conference to take of business. Teams such as Uconn, Memphis, Kansas State, and UNLV are teams capable of going on a run and “stealing” a bid if they win their respective conference tournaments. There is typically at least one underdog team this time of year that gets hot for a few days and wins their conference’s automatic bid. The Cougars would be well off if this scenario is avoided.
3. Bubble teams don’t pull off upsets. One downside for BYU in the WCC tournament was that Gonzaga was the only team that could have provided the Cougars with a resume-boosting win. Other bubble teams are more fortunate than BYU. Many of these teams can pick up a win or two that will take them from the wrong side of the bubble to the right side. Here are some teams to watch this week as they begin their conference tournaments. Obviously, the earlier they lose, the better for BYU.
– Temple: first game on Friday vs Memphis; Likely matchup vs SMU if they advance
– Tulsa: Friday vs Houston/Tulane; Friday vs Uconn/Cincinnati if they advance
– Miami: VA Tech Wednesday; Thursday vs Notre Dame if they advance
– Texas: Wednesday vs Texas Tech; Thursday vs Iowa St. if they advance
– Oklahoma State: Thursday vs Oklahoma
– Indiana: Thursday vs Northwestern; Friday vs Maryland if they advance
– Purdue: Friday vs Iowa (most likely)
– Illinois: Thursday vs Michigan; Friday vs Wisconsin if they advance
– Texas A&M: Thursday vs Auburn/MS St.; Friday vs LSU if they advance
– Ole Miss: Thursday vs South Carolina/Missouri; Friday vs UGA if they advance
– UCLA: Thursday: vs ASU/USC; Friday vs Arizona if they advance
– Boise State: Thursday vs UNM/AFA; Friday vs Wyoming/Utah State if they advance
– Colorado State: Thursday vs Fresno State; Friday vs SDSU/UNLV if they advance
So there you have it Cougar fans. While BYU is by no means a lock to make the tournament, I would put their odds at the moment at about 75%. While that number will fluctuate in the next week based on what happens around the country, the Cougars should be feeling pretty good about their chances at getting in the tournament. They have one of the best wins out of any team in the country, they pass the eye test, Kyle Collinsworth and Tyler Haws provide star power, and they have been playing their best ball at the end of the season. In my mind, those outweigh 3 100+ RPI losses and the lack of multiple top 50 wins. While BYU’s resume is not fantastic by any means, it is better than most other bubble teams. Regardless of what transpires over the next few days, however, Selection Sunday will no doubt be a stressful affair for Cougar faithful.