BYU football: Anything less than 10-3 is a disappointment
By Ron Jensen
BYU football needs to break the 10-win plateau this season. If the Cougars don’t, it will be a disappointing 2017.
The last few months, attempts to predict BYU football’s record this season have been numerous, to say the least. Hundreds of writers, reporters, analysts and avid fans have made a guess. We’ve even done so here at Lawless Republic.
Although there have been so many, most seem to follow the same trend: 9-4 would be good and 10-3 would be great.
On the surface, this sounds okay. If we take a closer look though, we’ll see that this mindset is flawed.
It’s easy to deduct. Because of some mediocre season records during independence, preceded by some unrealistic expectations, BYU football followers are trying to not get their hopes too high.
I understand the concept of not expecting too much to save yourself from major disappointment. However, to say that nine wins would be a “good” season, or even equal to 2016, is borderline ridiculous.
Here’s why:
First off, let’s look at the regular season schedule itself. There are 13 games this year because of the Hawaii exemption. Simple math tells us that this means your chances to get 10 wins is higher than in a 12-game season.
So, what this means is that a 10-3 season this year is not necessarily equivalent to a 10-2 season in past years.
Now, let’s look at the teams on the schedule. It is fair to say, that there are five tough opponents on the schedule this year. LSU, Wisconsin, Utah, Boise St. and Mississippi St.
The consensus is that eight of BYU football’s games shouldn’t be too difficult. ESPN FPI has BYU favored in 10 games this season. Why would BYU fans expect any different? They shouldn’t.
So assuming BYU football handles the opponents they should, let’s move back to the five upper-end opponents.
Of those five games, is it too much to ask for two victories?
Absolutely not.
With Utah, Wisconsin and Boise St. coming to Provo, it isn’t unrealistic to see two wins coming just from the home games. But if the chips fall in the right places, the Cougars may even win three of those five games.
If by chance they do win three of the five, to think that they could lose more than one of those other games is hard for me to fathom. Either way you look at it, 10 wins is the bare minimum for considering this year a successful one.
So, 10-3 should be expected by Cougar Nation. Anything less and it will probably feel like a step back from last year.
My hope is that BYU football pieces together a “great” season, finishing the regular season 11-2 and ranked.