BYU football: Don’t overlook Portland State and Utah State
By Adam Gibby
BYU football plays five very good teams in its first seven games, yet it may be the other two that the Cougars may need to be most careful about.
Every football season there seems to be a couple of huge upsets. I’m not talking about No. 20 BYU football beating No. 3 Oklahoma from 2009 or No. 15 Houston beating No. 3 Oklahoma last season (the Sooners probably never want to be ranked #3 again).
I am talking about the Appalachian State vs Michigan, Florida vs Georgia Southern, or Portland State vs Washington State games.
In fact, since 2000, there have been 22 current Power Five programs that have lost to a FCS school. That is only FCS games against Power Fives. When you throw in SEC vs. Sun Belt or Pac 12 vs WAC type of games, that number goes up to over 200 losses since 2000.
Most of the time, when a team loses to a FCS school, it is because the following game is against a much bigger opponent. For example, last year, Eastern Washington beat Washington State 45-42. Washington State’s next opponent was Boise State.
Obviously not every case is like this, however over 85% of the time, when a FBS Power Five team loses to a much lower conference/division team, the following game is against a much better team.
The reason this happens is that the lower ranked team sees the chance to beat a Power Five school as the “game of the year.” It is their BYU vs Utah, Michigan vs Ohio State or Alabama vs Auburn game. So when the game starts, they are fired up and often catch their opponents off guard. Most of the time the Power Five school makes a comeback, however sometimes it is just too little too late.
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BYU better be careful
This season BYU football will have a two trap games. Game one against Portland State and game four against Utah State.
When you look at the season, you can see how the Cougars could get caught looking ahead.
Week 1: vs. Portland State – Home opener. ROC section empty. School hasn’t started yet.
Week 2: vs. No. 12 LSU – SEC school. Win here would be a top five win in school history.
Week 3: vs. No. 25 Utah – Holy War in Provo for the first time since 2013.
Week 4: vs. No. 10 Wisconsin – Chance to beat a top 10 team in Provo.
Week 5: @ Utah State – Is this even a rivalry game? For the Aggies it is.
Week 6: vs. Boise State – Back and forth emotional rivalry starting here.
Week 7: @ Mississippi State – Rematch of last year’s 2OT BYU football win.
Both Portland State and Utah State have proven in the past that they can compete well with the best. In 2011, the Aggies were one onside kick recovery away from taking down the 2010 National Champion Auburn Tigers. Utah State has also beaten BYU football twice since 2010 and been within one touchdown of the Cougars two other times. In 2015, Portland State beat Washington State who ended up going 9-4 that season. They also were one touchdown away from beating California in 2013.
I do not believe that BYU football will lose to either Portland State or Utah State, however they need to take these games very seriously and not get caught looking ahead.
Going 5-0 or even 4-1 against LSU, Utah, Wisconsin, Boise State and Mississippi State would be amazing and appear to be possibly the best start ever. It will mean almost nothing though if they lose to either Utah State or Portland State.