BYU basketball: The Cougars’ path to an at-large NCAA berth

What does BYU basketball have to do earn an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament? Two previous seasons can give the Cougars an accurate blueprint.

2015.

That’s the last time BYU basketball made the NCAA tournament.

If the Cougars return to the Big Dance this season, it will have been a full three years since that last trip, where the Cougars fell to Ole Miss in the First Four.

For BYU to make it back to the tournament, they have one of two paths: win the WCC tournament or receive an at-large bid.

The Cougars haven’t won their conference tournament since 2001. Plus, winning it this year would likely mean beating both St. Mary’s and Gonzaga in Las Vegas.

That’s a tall task. It’s possible, but not something to bank BYU’s NCAA tournament hopes on.

So moving to the other path, what would the Cougars have to do to earn an at large berth?

That 2015 team can give us a blueprint.

Since the NCAA tournament expanded to 68 teams, BYU basketball has played in the First Four twice, in 2012 and 2015.

That means that in both years, the Cougars were one of the last four teams to make it in the tournament as an at-large.

When you look at both seasons, their resumes were very similar, giving us a good idea of what BYU need to do at a minimum to earn an at-large spot.

Looking at 2011-12, this was the Cougars’ record based on their opponents’ RPI rankings:

1-25:        1-5
26-50:      1-0
51-100:    3-0
101-200:  7-2
201+:         12-0

And looking at 2014-15, the breakdown looks pretty much the same:

1-25:         1-3
26-50:       1-1
51-100:     3-1
101-200:   8-3
201+:         10-0

At first glance, a few things stick out with both resumes. Both seasons featured a marquee win against a Top-25 team (against Gonzaga both seasons).

The Cougars went 5-5 against teams with Top-100 RPI’s in both seasons. They also avoided having any truly bad losses in either season, going a combined 22-0 against teams with an RPI worse than 200.

With that in mind, let’s create a blueprint for an at-large tournament team:

• At least one marquee win over a Top-25 RPI team.
• A .500 or better record against teams in the RPI Top-100.
• No more than 2-3 losses against teams with RPI’s between 101-200.
• No losses against teams with an RPI worse than 200.

Building the 2017-18 resume

So far, the Cougars are holding steady on that blueprint. They’ve gone 1-1 against the two teams that are expected to have RPI’s better than 100 (Princeton and UT Arlington).

BYU hasn’t had a chance yet to pick up a marquee win, but that first opportunity comes this weekend, when the Cougars take on Alabama in Brooklyn on Friday.

It’s a big chance for the Cougars to make an early season impression. Their other marquee matchups will come in WCC play against Gonzaga twice and St. Mary’s twice.

BYU’s other opponents who will likely be in the Top-100: Utah and Illinois State.

That’s nine games, and the Cougars need to win at least five. They’ve got one under their belt, and four out of their last seven at home.

Just as important as those wins against Top-100 teams is avoiding bad losses. The Cougars can’t afford any losses to the following teams: Niagara, Idaho State, Texas Southern, Portland, Pacific, Pepperdine, and Loyola Marymount.

And then there’s the teams in the middle, the teams that the Cougars can’t slip up more than two or three times against: UMass, UVU, Utah State, Weber State, San Francisco, Santa Clara, and San Diego.

The blueprint to an at-large berth is there, and BYU has the right schedule to follow it.

Whether or not they do it remains to be seen.