With Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s appearing to be top 15 teams and BYU basketball only returning a handful of players, not too many fans were optimistic about the Cougars’ chances.
Coming into the season this year I honestly was giving BYU basketball maybe a 15 percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament. I saw the schedule, roster and other teams in the WCC and just honestly could not get myself to draw too many paths that would lead to the NCAA Tournament.
Ten games into the season however, I am now starting to believe that the Cougars may find themselves in the “Big Dance” in March. I can see three ways that the Cougars could find themselves in the tournament.
1. Win the WCC conference tournament
This is the obvious way to make the tournament. Anyone in the WCC can make the tournament even if they were to finish the season 5-27. If a team wins the conference tournament, they are given an automatic birth into the NCAA Tournament.
Before the season started, it appeared that Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s were on their own level. Gonzaga was coming off of being in the national championship game from last season, and Saint Mary’s was returning the majority of their team that finished ranked No. 22. Many had BYU actually finishing in a tight battle for third place with San Francisco, who haven’t made the NCAA Tournament since 1998.
Then the first 10 games happened.
Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s both have two losses. San Francisco has lost three games including losses to Long Beach State and UC Santa Barbara. BYU has also lost two games, however have also picked up a few good wins.
Although I would still say that Saint Mary’s or Gonzaga is the favorite to win the WCC tournament, the margin is much smaller.
Odds of happening and making the tournament: 25 percent BYU wins tournament (40 percent Gonzaga, 32 percent Saint Mary’s, three percent anyone else). However if they were to do this, they would 100 percent make the tournament.