BYU basketball: How the Cougars can make the NCAA Tournament
By Adam Gibby
2. BYU wins the games they should, doesn’t lose the games they shouldn’t
The magic number to get into the NCAA tournament seems to be about 25 for teams in mid-tier conferences (MWC, WCC, C-USA). 24 wins is on the bubble, 25 is normally safe and 26 tends to be close to a lock-in.
Currently the Cougars have eight wins. That means they need 17 more wins to get to the magic number 25. If BYU basketball can go 14-0 in WCC play against teams not named Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s that will put them at 22 wins. Pick up wins against Idaho State and Texas Southern and the Cougars are at 24 wins. With that the Cougars should be the number three seed in the WCC Conference Tournament meaning they would play the winner of the six versus seven seed game. Winning that game would give the Cougars 25 wins for season.
Odds of happening and making the tournament: 20 percent. It is very difficult to go 17-0 against teams that are ranked below BYU. I believe that the Cougars will likely drop one or two of these games. Sometimes matchups are not good or everyone shoots ice cold. That is the beauty of basketball though, anyone can beat anyone if the cards fall right.
Also, I am not sure that BYU would get in with 25 wins if their best win of the season is against UMass or UVU. They would likely still be on the bubble.