BYU basketball: How the Cougars can make the NCAA Tournament

3. BYU wins most conference games, picks up two big wins

Going back to the last slide, I believe that at some point this season BYU basketball will drop a game to a team they should beat. Pepperdine seems to match up well with the Cougars as well as Portland. If this happens the Cougars will need to find wins somewhere else.

More than likely BYU will lose one or two games in conference play against teams they should beat. For that reason, BYU will have to go at least 2-4 against Utah, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s. Utah and Saint Mary’s (Dec 30) are definitely the biggest opportunities to get some attention. Currently, BYU basketball is an after thought in the college basketball world. Getting a big win on the ESPN networks before the new year would get some people putting BYU back in the conversation.

I do not see how a 12-3 BYU team going into the new year would not be a bubble team. From that point, the Cougars would only need to go 1-3 in their remaining games with Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga. Anything bonus is a near automatic berth for the tournament.

Odds of happening and making the tournament: 60 percent. BYU basketball should go at least 2-4 against these teams, especially because all three of them are not elite like we thought they would be in the preseason.  If BYU basketball finishes 25-8 with wins over Utah and Gonzaga or Gonzaga twice or any other combination, the Cougars should be in the tournament.

The only danger of them not making the tournament would be for them to lose to Utah and Saint Mary’s then pick up two wins against Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s in the middle of conference play and then lose twice again to finish out the season, or for the Cougars to drop more than three games in conference play to teams below them.

Overall Analysis

The Cougars have a really good shot at making the tournament this year as long as they continue to play as they have been so far this season. They have showed that they can win in many different ways and control the game better than in past seasons.

Overall, at this point in the season, I would have to give the Cougars a 70 percent chance of making the tournament. And if you had told me preseason that the Cougars had anything above a 30 percent chance, I may have laughed at that.

It’s time to stop laughing.