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Computers still have BYU basketball on the bubble

By Adam Gibby

SALT LAKE CITY, UT - MARCH 16: The NCAA logo is seen in the second half of the game between the Northwestern Wildcats and the Vanderbilt Commodores during the first round of the 2017 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Vivint Smart Home Arena on March 16, 2017 in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
SALT LAKE CITY, UT - MARCH 16: The NCAA logo is seen in the second half of the game between the Northwestern Wildcats and the Vanderbilt Commodores during the first round of the 2017 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Vivint Smart Home Arena on March 16, 2017 in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /
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Following the loss to Pacific last Saturday, many BYU basketball fans appeared to throw in the towel for this season, the computers however tell us otherwise.

ESPN, Yahoo Sports, CBS sports and Fox Sports have, to this point, kept the BYU Basketball team out of the NCAA Tournament discussion.

Although it is a committee that makes the final decision of who makes and misses the tournament,  the computer based ranking systems RPI, BPI play a role in how they vote. And they are giving the Cougars a lot more respect than you may think.

Every year there are 32 Conference Champions that receive automatic births into the NCAA Tournament. After that there are 36 at-large bids given to teams who do not win their Conference Tournaments but still show a strong resume.

Currently the Cougars are ranked No. 73 in the RPI and No. 57 in the BPI.  Throwing out conference leaders, these numbers go to No. 57 for the RPI,  and No. 41 for the BPI.

In other words, BYU Basketball is 21 spots out from the RPI and five spots out for the BPI from being the 36th at-large bid.

This is obviously outside of the tournament but it is not too far out. Losing to Pacific actually only cost the Cougars about eight spots in the rankings.

Again, I realize and understand that humans, not computers make the final decision on which teams do and do not make the tournament. It’s important to remember though that the computer rankings are looked at and can be considered more reliable because they use math that humans do not. They measure the quality of wins, the value of losses, and even keep track of how wins either increase or decrease in value as the opponents continue to win or lose.

To do this BYU basketball needs two things.

  1. Don’t lose any more bad games. Losing a bad game for the computers can move the Cougars from the 47-73 position to the 70-90 position which may too much to overcome. Beating bad teams will generally move the Cougars up one or two spots. So twelve wins against bad teams should move the Cougars into the 35-48 range (23-32 for at-large position). That ranking would be safe for a Power Five school, but not a WCC school.
  2. Win a big game. Losing big games for the computers does not affect much. BYU basketball losing to Gonzaga may drop the Cougars two or three spots. A win however can move them up six to seven spots.

I honestly do not feel that the NCAA committee is going to give the Cougars much respect this season. However, if the Cougars can move their computer rankings into the high thirties the committee may not be able to keep them out of the tournament in March.

BYU lost to Pacific. It was a bad loss, but so was Duke losing to Boston College or North Carolina State. Luckily though, BYU basketball still has many more opportunities to boost its resume. And that is something to keep cheering for.

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