Does the Big 12 Conference need BYU football to survive?

While some are asking if BYU football can survive without a P5 conference affiliation, let’s flip the script. Can the Big 12 last without the Cougars?

Last year the Big 12 Conference publicly considered adding teams to its membership. Like most decisions, it was based on gaining money. After being offered more cash by TV partners ESPN and FOX to not expand, they decided against it.

Oklahoma made the College Football Playoff this year. By doing so, the notion that the conference is at a disadvantage to gain access to it, was proven not to be the case. Although this seems to be a victory to the Big 12, it very well could be part of its downfall.

This season’s playoff snubbed two Power 5 champions. Ohio State of the Big 10 and USC of the Pac 12 watched while representatives from the other three conferences battled for the title. They weren’t happy about, and neither were their leagues.

Everyone understands that there are only four openings for five conferences. The unstated reality is that each conference is willing to do about anything to get a member in. That includes poaching and adding members from another, especially if it helps dissolve one.

If you don’t believe me, take a look at recent history. It was only five years ago that the Big East became the American Athletic Conference. After losing teams to the ACC, Big 12, and Big 10, it was promptly demoted to “Group of Five” status.

If universities like Iowa State, Kansas, and Kansas State feel secure in their surroundings, maybe they should think twice. Just ask Cincinnati, UCONN, and South Florida.

These former prestigious “power” programs, once had a seat at the precious BCS table. Now they receive scraps from the Power 5’s, like everyone else. Few organizations have fallen further in such a short amount of time.

Could such an occurrence have been avoided? Another look at the past reveals the answer.

In the Spring of 2011, ESPN offered the Big East Conference a nine-year deal, allegedly worth $1.17 billion. That would have been $130 million a year. Because of greed, hubris, and an incredible miscalculation, commissioner John Marinatto and associates decided to turn down the offer.

This would prove to be one of the biggest financial blunders of all time. And the other “power” conferences knew it. Like sharks sensing blood in the water, they were there in a flash to make their attack.

In the next few months, TCU decommitted from the league to join the Big 12. West Virginia then chose to accompany them after an invite. A year later Rutgers committed to the Big 10, and Louisville accepted an ACC spot.

In the Spring of 2013, ESPN had a new offer for the Big East that surprised no one. A nine-year deal was only worth $126 million. A measly $18 million per year, was all the administrators could acquire.

The current Big 12 can learn from the former Big East’s costly mistake. That is, if they choose to.

It almost seems that the leadership of the conference has decided to quietly ride off into the sunset and get as much money as they can, while they can. It is surely no coincidence that the expiration date of the T.V. contract, June 30, 2025, is the exact same day commissioner Bob Bowlsby’s contract ends.

But, if the conference does have plans to continue, now is the time to act. The solution is simple. It must impress the TV networks (or other platforms) enough to receive a big money deal that will convince its “upperclass” members to refuse invitations to join other Power 5’s.

How does it happen?

How do they accomplish it? This is where BYU football comes in. The Cougars bring a huge fan base that will instantly put eye balls on the television. With BYU football, the networks will take notice.

This needs to happen as soon as possible. By adding BYU football and the other major ratings booster, Boise State, the league might have enough time to convince networks that their investment will be worth it.

If you disagree with me on this matter, answer me a question. What program has an individualized contract with ESPN other than these two? There’s a reason for it, and no other schools can offer what they can.

The invitation to both schools would be strictly for football. That way, they avoid scheduling conflicts for the Olympic sports because of distance and, in BYU’s case, Sunday play. Another plus, they regain the conference’s namesake number.

BYU’s other sports would comfortably stay in the West Coast Conference, while Boise State would find a new home in the Big West Conference.

Next: Should BYU Consider The AAC?

Whether the Big 12 wants to admit it or not, unless something changes, expansion is immanent. When it happens, the conference will cease to exist.

I have two possible theories that I’ll share below on how it begins. One starts in the West, and the other in Big 10 Country.

Expansion Theory No.1: The Pac 12 goes after the state of Texas

Pac 12 adds:
Texas
TCU
Texas Tech
Baylor

SEC goes after:
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State

ACC picks up:
West Virginia
Notre Dame (now as a full conference member)

Big 10 takes:
Kansas
Kansas State

Left out:
Iowa State

Expansion Theory No. 2: The Big 10 makes the first move

Big 10 invites:
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State

SEC snags:
Texas
TCU

ACC still chooses:
West Virginia
Notre Dame

Pac 12 adds:
Texas Tech
Baylor

In this scenario, the Pac 12 probably stays at 14 teams. If by chance, they decide or are forced to go the 16 teams, I personally believe they take BYU, Boise State, or other western teams over Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State.

Ironically, the team that needs BYU football more than anyone, was most adamant about keeping them out last year. Iowa State might want to change its tune. If not, instead of “whistlin’ dixie,” they could be chanting, “alms for the poor” with the other FBS peasants.

There are two major benefits to adding BYU and Boise State to the conference. The first, is of course the immediate increase in television ratings.

The second may be even better. With two strong programs added to the group, the likelihood of survival goes up. Even if they lose a school or two, the league still has a chance to stay intact.

The one thing the other Power 5’s can’t afford to happen, is to take teams but not have the Big 12 dissolve. This just creates more mouths to feed, with the same odds of making the playoff. This concern alone could detour the other conferences from expanding.

The argument can be made to just wait until the Big 12 absolutely needs BYU and Boise State before making the move. The problem with that thought process is that these two programs will take a few seasons and dollars to build themselves into Power 5 contenders.

Similarly to TCU and Utah, they need a little time to get their feet underneath them. Once that happens, they should be able to become forces to be reckoned with. Especially with these new resources.

Whether the Big 12 acts or not, remains a mystery.  If they are content to keep doing what they have, just like the Big East of old, the conference will be no more. But if they decide to do something now, there’s still a chance to survive.