BYU Basketball: Saint Mary’s game may be the biggest game of the season

BYU basketball is 17-4 and receiving no respect from the NCAA ranking committees. The Cougars will have a chance on Thursday to gain respect though, perhaps for the last time.

So far this season, BYU basketball hasn’t been in the national spotlight at all.

The Cougars haven’t been brought up in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology – or anyone’s for that matter.  I’m not saying that the Cougars deserve to be ranked – you can’t lose to Pacific and reach that conclusion.

But, I can’t help but feel like BYU basketball should be in the bubble discussion at the moment. However, time is running out for the Cougars. If they stay out of the national discussion much longer, they may never get back in it – regardless of what happens down the stretch.

Because more often than not, bubble teams tend to remain where they are. Unless a team drops two or three games in a row and goes from “Last Four In” to “Next Four Out,” things tend to stand pat.

Now Or Never

The WCC is starting to appear less like a good conference and more like a one/two team conference. I thought that if the Cougars could finish the season with 25 wins they would be considered a bubble team. But you can’t help but doubt that assessment now.

BYU basketball is tied for the 17th-best record in college basketball. That number will likely remain about the same if they finish with three total losses between the four games against St. Mary’s and Gonzaga. If the Cougars can survive this week, and come out 19-4, the heads will likely start turning.

So that means the Cougars need a win.

If BYU basketball loses, however, then it becomes a very uphill climb that would require a WCC Championship.

Why so much?

If BYU falls to Saint Mary’s they will be in a very large group of teams with five losses. Beating Gonzaga at the Kennel will be a great win but not a “bubble” win. A few weeks later, the Cougars would get a second chance and if they were to win, I believe they would be in the “Last Four In/First Four Out” group. A loss before the championship would push them out. However, another win against either Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s in the semi-final game would likely push the Cougars into the tournament. That means going 4-1 though, which honestly is a lot to ask of any team having to play the No. 15 and 16 teams in the country.

But If The Cougars Beat Saint Mary’s

Now let’s play the scenario out with the Cougars winning on Thursday. A 19-4 BYU basketball team would get some votes to be in the top 25. Just having their name listed in the AP Top 25 rankings (even unranked), should put the Cougars into the tournament discussion as a bubble team.

If the Cougars beat Gonzaga in the Kennel, the Cougars will then be put into the tournament as a 7/8 seed. Even if the Cougars lost to Gonzaga the second time around, the Cougars should remain as a team in the tournament. After that the Cougars only need to not lose until the semi-finals to get an at-large bid.

The same would apply if the Cougars lost to Gonzaga in Spokane. They would go from a bubble team to probably a “First Four Out” team. If they beat Gonzaga the second time around, that should put them solidly in the tournament. And barring an upset in the first round of the WCC Tournament, the Cougars would probably still get into the tournament.

With this scenario, the Cougars would have to go 2-2 to get into the NCAA Tournament. That is still a lot to ask, but it isn’t supposed to be easy to get in. Unless your a Power 6 (P5 + Big East Conference) school. Then you just have to finish 8-10 in conference play to make it.