BYU football: Are future schedules too difficult?

This is the second article of a three-part series on the sustainability of independence for BYU football, in particular, the challenge of scheduling.

Since the BYU football embarked on this journey of independence, scheduling has been a pain in the neck for Tom Holmoe. Setting up twelve teams to play will never be an easy task, but that is just the beginning.

Holmoe has dealt with complaint after complaint, from the get-go. First, there was the criticism about a subpar November slate. Next, came the grievances of a lack of good home games. And now protests of how he is scheduling overly difficult seasons.

Although it appears that there is no rhyme or reason to his methods, Holmoe is being very deliberate with his actions.

Many think this is the wrong approach to scheduling. They feel that BYU football should follow the Boise State Model. That is, schedule two or three tough games a year, and win out. It’s hard to argue their success. The scheme has landed the Broncos in three BCS/New Year’s Six Bowls and in the top AP rankings eleven of the last sixteen years.

BYU Cougars Football

However, there is a downside to the Broncos reasoning. Boise State has yet to gain consideration for the College Football Playoff. In fact, a look at future schedules show that with a lack of star power, they will never realistically get such an offer.

Another negative, is despite the success, no Power Five Conferences have invited them to join. Actually, when the Big 12 considered expansion in 2016, Boise State was among this first to be dropped from the list.

It seems that Tom Holmoe and the courageous Cougars are out to blaze a new trail. To go, where no college football team has gone before. Right?

Not exactly. The course that the program is choosing is one that is tried and true. I like to call it the Notre Dame Model of scheduling.

The Irish load their seasons with talent filled opponents from a wide variety of Power Conferences. This system has yielded mixed results.

In the past 15 years, Notre Dame has had three losing seasons. However, they’ve also played in four BCS/New Year’s Six Bowls, including the 2012 BCS Championship Game. Unlike Boise State, Power Conferences are beating down the door to convince the Irish to join them.

This is the path that Tom Holmoe and BYU football has chosen. As attractive as the Boise State method may be, that is not the direction they’re taking. And there’s no turning back.

During the 1980’s and 90’s, BYU football used the Boise State approach. It ended up in the AP rankings eleven times and won the Cougars a National Championship. Those days were great, but that ship has sailed.

An attempt to return to the “good old days” would be a step backwards, and Tom Holmoe knows it. The options are clear. The future lies in the Notre Dame method. Either find a way to make it work or slip into irrelevancy.

Some ask what has independence scheduling has done for BYU football. While it appears to be little, a closer look uncovers some fascinating discoveries.

The Cougars have not been ranked in the AP polls since becoming an independent. Yet, in the seasons of 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016, one additional win would have undoubtedly got them there. That’s five out of seven years!

While the Cougars have yet to play in a New Year’s Six bowl, they’ve had their fair share of big opportunities. BYU football has played 16 teams during independence that would eventually end up in the final AP rankings.

This year the college football world saw Central Florida go undefeated and not even come close to making the College Football Playoff. Noticing BYU football schedules, one sees that they would have cracked the playoff in 2017, 2016, 2015, and 2012 (BCS Championship) had they done the same.

Eyeing future schedules unveils similar findings. Though it’s impossible to know how good opponents will be when they actually play, it’s fairly obvious that for the next three years, if BYU football runs the table, there’s enough big names to put them in.

That small glimmer of hope is something neither Boise State nor Central Florida has. On the contrary, the next time Notre Dame goes undefeated, count on them being in.

Sure, there are risks to scheduling this way, but the rewards can be amazing. The Irish clearly feel they’re worth it. That’s why, when someone asks me if BYU football is over ambitious with their scheduling, I’ll answer the way I always do. Absolutely not.