BYU Football: The Holy War doesn’t care who has the better team

BYU Football has a better chance to beat Utah than some might think. Although the Utes have the better team, recent “Holy War” history says that doesn’t matter.

To say that the BYU-Utah rivalry has been one-sided the last few years would be an understatement. The Utes have beat the Cougars in every meeting since 2009, when BYU football pulled off the dramatic overtime victory (George is still running).

What isn’t often mentioned is that something strange has occurred during these years.  This discovery is one Ute fans would rather not investigate, and one that’s too painful for Cougar fans  to revisit.  Still, the evidence is real.

These statistics are by no means intended to undermine the current Ute ownership of the series.  To not concede the notion is not only ridiculous, but downright classless.  Cougar Nation must admit this, just as Utah is expected to acknowledge it when the Cougars start beating them again.

If the rivalry has taught us anything the last seven go-rounds, it is that the best team doesn’t always win.  Though some will argue otherwise, there are some glaring numbers that prove the point.

The Wild Rivalry

First of all, in three of the seven games, the team with more total yards of offense ended up losing.  This happened in 2012 (313-245), 2013 (443-402), and 2015 (386-197).  Even though it’s not unheard of, teams that lead in this category typically end up winning the game.

Another oddity is that the team with the worse record at season’s end has prevailed three times in the series during this streak.  The 2010 season saw the Cougars ranked No.25 in the final AP poll with a 10-3 record, compared to the Utes’ 8-5 tally.  The 2012 Cougars were 8-5, whereas the Utes ended up 5-7.  Then in 2013 both teams finished with the same win-loss total as the previous year.

Sure, records can be misleading, but there’s enough of a gap to show that, although marginal, BYU football had a slightly better team.

Beating Themselves

So how does such a phenomenon take place. Certainly, the 25 to 13 difference in turnover margin in favor of Utah has killed BYU. This includes a 5-0 advantage in 2015 and 7-2 mark in 2011.  The fact is, the Utes led in takeaways in every game expect for 2016.

It’s obvious that overconfidence, momentum swings, and misfortune played a bigger role in the final score during these years than individual talent and the quality of the team.

As lop-sided as the rivalry appears to be, this series isn’t one where a team is simply dominating the other.  In actuality, it’s a story of one team consistently outperforming the other on that specific day each season, despite having or not having the better team.

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Flipping the Script

This reinforces that the question at hand is not, “Why is Utah so much better than BYU?”, but rather, “How did Utah beat BYU even when the Cougars had the better team?”

This is the combo that Kalani Sitake and associates must crack to give themselves a chance to beat the Utes on Saturday.

Lack of motivation shouldn’t be an issue.  The Utes have given the Cougars plenty of bulletin board material over the years.  Comments like, “This is Utah’s world, and BYU’s living in it” and ” Don’t start nothing, won’t be nothing. I swear, we will legally hurt you every play,” are still ringing in every ear of Cougar Nation.

Can BYU Football flip the script conjure up enough of whatever it takes to be victorious at the end of regulation, in spite of having the lesser team? The recent past tells us, yes.

But will they?  In a few short days we’ll know.