The battle for second place
Gonzaga is going to win the one seed barring the breakdown of the century. They are beating teams in conference by more than twenty five points per game. They sit 2.5 games ahead of BYU and would need to either A) Lose their remaining games or B) Lose three games including BYU by more 30 points. That isn’t happening, so Gonzaga can safely watch the remaining three teams battle it out for second place.
BYU sits 1.5 games ahead of both San Fransisco and Saint Mary’s. Again that .5 lead means nothing other than one less game to worry about. Here are the scenarios that BYU finishes as the two seed.
- Finish 3-0.
- Finish 2-1 while only losing to Gonzaga AND Saint Mary’s losses a game.
- Finish 1-2 but beat San Fransisco by 19 points or more AND have Saint Mary’s lose two games.
- Lose to Gonzaga and San Fransisco AND have San Fransisco lose three games AND Saint Mary’s lose three games.
San Fransisco currently is 7-4 in the WCC. Their advantage is that they don’t have Gonzaga on their schedule to worry about. In fact, in their final four games, BYU is the only team remaining with a winning record in WCC play. Although their road is smaller than BYU’s to get to the two seed, their track is the most obvious, beat BYU. Here is how the Don’s finish second.
- Finish 4-0 AND have Saint Mary’s lose a game
- Finish 3-1 beating BYU AND have Saint Mary’s lose two games.
- Finish 3-1 losing to BYU by LESS than19 points AND have BYU lose their final two games AND have Saint Mary’s lose two games.
Saint Mary’s has an easier track to the two seed but they also have the least control over what happens because they do not play San Fransisco or BYU in their final four games. Here is their track to the two seed.
- Finish 4-0 AND have BYU lose one game
- Finish 3-1 AND have BYU lose two games AND have San Fransisco lose one game.
- Finish 2-2 AND have BYU lose three games AND San Fransisco lose two games.