BYU Football: The earliest bowl game projections

Last year was the first year that BYU did not have a pre-arranged agreement to a bowl game since going Independent and it had mixed reactions from fans.

Last season, BYU played in the Famous Idaho Potato bowl which turned out to be a good matchup for them because they played a team that was at least on paper a good opponent. Some other years it has not turned out that way because of the nature of BYU’s preseason agreements to bowl games.

Although these pre-arrangement bowl games do not guarantee100% that BYU will go to that bowl game, they are pretty set in stone as long as BYU qualifies by winning six games. In fact some years, BYU has agreed to play in the game seconds after becoming bowl eligible despite having games remaining on the schedule. Some of the questionable games that come to mind are the 2011 Armed Forces Bowl when 9-3 BYU played a 8-4 Tulsa from the C-USA. On paper, this would seem like a game that would heavily favor BYU, but because of bowl agreements, some years BYU will play teams better than they probably should and other years teams perhaps below them.

In 2019, BYU has a bowl agreement with the Hawaii bowl which has the potential to be a game that could heavily favor BYU. In fact, the game will likely be the easiest bowl opponent BYU will face since facing UTEP in 2010 in the New Mexico Bowl.

The other qualifier for the bowl game is the fifth team from the AAC. This past season that would have been Houston who ended up finishing 8-5 which would have been a fair opponent (they got blown out 70-14 in their bowl game against Army) but other years, the fifth place team has been as low as SMU in 2017 who finished 7-6.

Obviously, it could end up being a tough game if BYU is 6-6 and the AAC has a really good year like they did in 2015 when the fifth best team was Memphis who finished the regular season at 9-3.

That is the risk that BYU takes as an Independent with contracts into bowl games. The Cougars could finish 10-2 and be ranked in the top twenty and play a 7-5 Tulane team who’s best win is against lower AAC teams. On the flip side, a 6-6 BYU team could play a 9-3 ranked USF. For the most part, the games have worked out well for the Cougars, but one of these years there is going to be a major mismatch.

Stadium Football Insider Brett McMurphy recently released his bowl game projections and believes that BYU will play Memphis in the Hawaii Bowl. That would be a very interesting matchup and somewhat ironic being five years separated from the Miami Beach Bowl in a place as far from Miami as you can get.

– – – – – – – – – – – – –  – – – – – – – – – – – – – 

What do you think? Do you like BYU agreeing to bowl games years in advance with the guarantee of a game or do you prefer what the Cougars did this season not knowing the bowl game?