Since BYU has become Independent, the team has been unusually stagnant.
BYU and the Mountain West treat each other like their ex, which is not surprising given the nature of BYU’s break-up with the conference. BYU fans talk of the Mountain West like it was a summer fling; it was cute and fun for a moment, but the Mountain West was not marriage material. The program left in search for something more stable, secure, and mature. Well, maybe there weren’t more fish in the sea after all.
BYU Football’s move to Independence has not been all bad. BYU has had signature wins against plenty of Power 5 schools including Wisconsin, Texas, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Mississippi State. The only problem, however, is the inconsistency. BYU has also lost games to East Carolina and UMASS and are starting to lose to rivals at a depressing rate.
Bill Connelly of SB Nation described BYU’s run in Independence with a reference to the movie “Groundhog Day”. Meaning, BYU is not getting better or worse, they are simply reliving the same thing year in and year out, with the exception being the forgettable 2017 season. According to Connelly’s S&P+ rankings, BYU has been between 39-46 since the move to Independence, again not bad but not great either.
BYU’s run in Independence so far has not been a nightmare, but it is not necessarily dreamy either. The program expects more, though it does not seem to know exactly what they want. Assuming BYU wants to be ranked at the end of the season and possibly even play in a New Year’s Six game, Independence might not be the answer.
Here’s what Independence brings: Nationally televised games against big-time programs. This year BYU has scheduled games against Utah, Tennessee, USC, Washington, and Boise State. For fans, that schedule is hard to beat, especially when four of those games will be played in Provo. If BYU, in some alternate reality that only Dr. Strange could possibly see, were to win all of those games, BYU would be looking at one of the strongest resumes in the country and a sure invite to at least a New Year’s Six bowl. The only problem is, it’s not going to happen and it does not look like it will for a long, long time.
Here’s what the Mountain West brings: An easier but respectable schedule that at its best can get BYU to a New Year’s Six and at its worst BYU will be where it currently is now. The overall stigma of the Mountain West is that the schedule would not be hard enough to get BYU into the New Year’s Six. But, that is starting to look more like myth than reality. Boise State is one of the top Group of 5 teams in the nation, being ranked or respected every single year. Utah State might not be a powerhouse, but they are handling “Big Brother” in Provo pretty well recently. San Diego State is no push-over either.
Here’s what winning brings: Respect and recognition. The formula is simple, just ask UCF. They play in a “weak” conference, but yet, they have been in the New Year’s Six two years in a row. The problem with UCF is that they don’t schedule tough teams in non-conference. BYU has proven that they can schedule tough P5 teams. What would be the harm in a MWC schedule, but improved by adding Utah and another P5?
If winning is the formula and the goal for BYU, a reunion with the ex might not seem so bad. Who knows if the MWC is even single or if the MWC is ready for another relationship, but BYU has to at least get back in touch. Independence is quickly becoming an unhealthy relationship.