No. 2 BYU finishes with 9 or 10 wins
If BYU can start off the season well by beating Arizona and then split Utah and Arizona State, BYU Football will be well on their way to nine or ten wins. Assuming that they take care of Utah State and Southern Florida, who are both projected to win less than four games, that would put BYU at 4-1.
We can also assume that BYU will have no problem with Idaho State. That would mean that BYU would have to just go 4-2 against Washington State, Boise State, Georgia Southern, Baylor, USC, and Virginia. While that is still a tall task, let’s say BYU beats Boise State in week six. Suddenly BYU just has to go 3-2 against the rest of their schedule, a task that seems pretty doable.
This happening essentially would require BYU beating all the teams they are either expected to beat as well as win all of the “toss up” games plus one big upset. That is a lot of things having to go right, which is why it is given a low chance of happening.
Chance of happening: 25%