No. 4 BYU wins 11 or 12 games
Wait, undefeated or one loss? Notice this is number four on this list meaning it is not likely to happen.
Let’s say BYU starts 3-0. It can happen, here is how.
Arizona – BYU should win this game, no need to go into detail.
Utah – Yes, the streak is nine games, but going back to 1997, 18 out of 22 games have been a one score game including seven of the nine games during this streak. In other words, the law of averages says that BYU is well overdue for a win against the Utes. The Utes will be good this year, but they won’t be invincible. This is a winnable game for the Cougars
Arizona State – I have Arizona State as a surprisingly good team this season, however there are a few things going against the Sun Devils in this game. First, to this point, ASU will have played SUU and UNLV, not exactly competition that will give them adversity, something the Cougars surely will have dealt with against their first two opponents. Second, This will be the first time since 2019 that ASU will play a true road game with opposing fans. If the Sun Devils get behind early, BYU may hang on in this game as well.
If the Cougars are able to go 3-0 to start, they then play Southern Florida and Utah State. That would have BYU at 5-0 to start off. The Cougars then go into a tough stretch of Boise State, Washington State, Baylor, and Virginia. That is a rough stretch, but there is no single game in that list that looks like a game that BYU can not win, in fact the likely two best teams BSU and UVA are both at home for BYU.
The Cougars then end their season with Idaho State, Georgia Southern and USC. Georgia Southern will be pesky (think Texas St. last year) and USC will be a tough game in the Coliseum. The one bright spot against the Trojans is that they will essentially already have their season done. Think Utah back in 2018 when they had already clinched a spot in the Pac 12 Championship and then almost lost to BYU. If USC is in the Pac 12 Championship game, there focus will be on that. If they aren’t then their bowl game likely won’t change anyway unless they are on the bubble of being a NY6 at-large bid.
If the Cougars can either go 4-0 against the tough stretch and then lose USC, or lose a game in that stretch and then beat USC, the Cougars will finish 11-1. It is nearly impossible for me to honestly see them doing both and finishing 12-0. If they do, they will likely be in the College Football Playoff with 7 P5 wins, Boise State and a good Georgia Southern on their resume.
Chance of happening: 8%