1 – Calm, Then Total Chaos
This is the most likely scenario that I think will happen. Assuming that the Oklahoma and Texas deal takes place in the next few years before TV contracts are done, the changes to conferences around the country will be minimal, likely looking like No. 4 on this list (nothing) or No. 10 (Big 12 adds four teams).
Once TV contracts are up though, watch out for chaos. In today’s college football world it is tough to imagine the SEC dropping Vanderbilt or the Big 10 dumping Rutgers, but they could make it very attractive for them to leave (bypassing buyouts, blackmailing, etc…).
If this happens, watch out for football to look nothing like it currently looks like. With NIL dominating bigger markets, places like Memphis will be more attractive than Texas Tech in Lubbock. A team like Rutgers who has stank in football for years may be a better opportunity than Starkville.
Likelihood of happening: Very High
I believe that this model was destined to happen with or without Texas and Oklahoma wanting to leave for the SEC. What I think this does though is accelerate the timetable in which it happens.
What do you think? How will Texas and Oklahoma leaving the Big 12 change the face of college football? Let us know in the comments!