9 – Big 12 Dismantles, AAC Becomes P5
In this scenario, the Big 12 attempts to get P5 schools and fails to gain any. The AAC schools see this and realize that they are in a better spot in the AAC as the new P5 than leaving and hoping for the best. The AAC then adds five teams out west including some Big 12 members and becomes not only a P5, but the third best P5 only behind the Big 10 and SEC.
While the amount of teams that the AAC would add is anyone’s guess, 16 seems like a good number.
The top candidates for the open spots would almost surely be Oklahoma State, Iowa State, BYU, TCU and another Big 12 school.
The remaining Big 12 schools would join other conferences with Texas Tech and Baylor likely joining the Pac 12 and the Kansas schools joining the Mountain West.
Likelihood of happening: High
This model makes a lot of sense. I don’t see the SEC letting Arkansas go with their recent success in basketball, baseball and track. Missouri and Nebraska both feel like Big 12 schools, but even those schools don’t seem likely to leave.