4 – Nothing Happens
As boring as it would be, maybe the Big 12 just decides to stay put at eight teams for a couple of years and hope that things work out in the longterm.
This is a very unlikely scenario as there is almost no way for the Big 12 to go down to eight teams and remain a P5 Conference. Even if the two programs leaving were Kansas State and Texas Tech, it is hard to justify an eight team conference receiving the same access and rights as conferences like the Big 10, SEC and ACC who would all be sitting at 15 or 16 members.
Not to mention, an eight team conference would mean that each team would play each other and each team would play one opponent twice.
Likelihood to happen: High at first, impossible longterm
The Big 12 has shown in the past that even when logic says to do otherwise, they are not afraid to stay put until something becomes inevitable. Maybe the Big 12 decides to be an eight team conference for as long as they can survive, or until another conference breaks up opening a potential to have P5’s join the Big 12.
This would be a very dangerous route to take and would more than likely end the conference after a couple of years, especially if they can’t produce Top 5 teams, which let’s be honest, isn’t happening.