12 Teams
Teams: BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Boise State OR Houston OR Memphis
Advantage: In this model there is no doubt that the best three and probably four best G5 teams are now in the conference. The AAC would lose at least two but very possibly three of their best teams in the league putting the Big 12 clearly in the drivers seat as the fifth best conference in the country. The AAC and Mountain West (especially if Boise State is taken) would fall to the ranks of the CUSA and Sun Belt and as the college football landscape changes, the Big 12 would be protected as a valid and real conference. And above all, the Big 12 would have, shocker 12 teams.
Disadvantage: While having four teams would certainly help with making up the hole that Texas and Oklahoma left, there would still be a “Great Value” or generic feel to this. Yes, everyone recognizes UCF, Cinci and BYU are good teams, but because they didn’t previously have the “Power” title to them, it would still lack from what the Big 12 was before. Another disadvantage is that the money share would be divided up by another two teams, which again individually aren’t adding much value. Finally, like in the ten team model, what happens if the Big 10 takes two teams? Suddenly things are in a fragile state again.
Odds of happening: 60%