Ranked Teams Ahead of BYU
Currently, there are seven SEC teams ranked ahead of BYU. In the last five years, there have not been more than four SEC teams finish in the Top 12. It is also worth noting the Texas A&M, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas and Ole Miss are all ranked in the Top 20, and they play in the same division.
Outside of the SEC, the ACC is already in a position to be a one bid league. Clemson, Miami, and North Carolina already have one loss. Virginia Tech seems to be the only possible team to make it a two bid league, if and only if they run the table before losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship game. Otherwise, there probably will only be one one loss team in the ACC.
The Big 12 and Pac 12 are in a very similar situation with the Big 12 really only having Oklahoma in a position to make a strong run at a NY6 barring Iowa State running the table or a shocker team like Kansas State emerging. The Pac 12 is in the same situation with only UCLA and Oregon looking like they have a shot finishing with only one loss.
The Big 10 is where things can get sticky. Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa and even Michigan State all seem to be in positions where they could potentially be a two loss team and be ranked in the Top 12. With the way that divisions are split up, realistically every single one of these teams could finish with two losses at the end of the season.
As far as G5’s go, Cincinnati will likely get the auto-bid meaning essentially only Coastal Carolina or UCF could be in a spot to steal a bid from a one loss BYU. No other team is in a spot to likely be ahead of a one loss BYU.
In other words, the SEC alone would likely bump BYU up from 20ish range up to the Top 15 with their league games. Naturally other teams will lose, and BYU will be in a position to be in a NY6 definitely undefeated, but possibly even with one loss.