BYU Football: Can BYU lose a game and still play in a NY6

[caption id="attachment_44442" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Oct 1, 2021; Logan, Utah, USA; Brigham Young Cougars running back Tyler Allgeier (25) is pursued by Utah State Aggies linebacker Kevin Meitzenheimer (33) during the third quarter at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports[/caption]rn BYU Football was ranked 10th in the AP Top 25 this past weekend. rnWhile hardly anyone was really talking about the chances of BYU going 12-0 or even 11-1 coming into this season, the few voices who were said that an 11-1 BYU Football team would qualify for a New Year Six.rnrnIs that still true? Unfortunately, it isn’t looking like it will be. Like every season, things never stack up how they are projected to. BYU is a perfect example of this. Only one AP voter had the Cougars in the AP Top 25 before the season started, and yet here we are.rnrnTo say that BYU would make a New Year Six Bowl with even one loss would likely mean that the normal candidates (Clemson, Notre Dame, and Ohio State who all currently have losses) would do what they normally do and take up the spots they normally take. Amongst other aspects, that has not happened, opening up and also closing different doors of possibilities of how the season will shakeout.rnrnThe first is the strength of BYU's schedule.rnrn[nextslide teaser="Not%20So%20P5" /]rnrn rnrn[caption id="attachment_44407" align="aligncenter" width="3200"] Sep 11, 2021; Tampa, Florida, USA; South Florida Bulls quarterback Timmy McClain (9) throws the ball against the Florida Gators during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports[/caption]rn Not So Great P5 Schedule rnOverall, BYU’s opponents have played worse than expected. Arizona is 0-4, Utah lost a game to San Diego State, and future opponents USC, Boise State, Virginia and Washington State are all playing well below their expectations. With an exception to Utah State, Arizona State and Baylor, nobody is making BYU’s schedule look overly difficult, or at least more difficult than expected.rnrnNow, we aren’t even halfway done with the season and things can of course turn completely around. Utah could go on to win six of their remaining eight games. Maybe Utah State ends up being a 9-3 or 10-2 team to finish out the season. Even USF could end up with four or five wins and be seen as a formidable team. But early results are showing that BYU's schedule is full of mostly bottom half P5 teams and struggling G5's.rnrn[nextslide teaser="A%20BIG%20issue" /]rnrn rnrn[caption id="attachment_44443" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) runs the ball during the first quarter of a NCAA Division I football game between the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021 at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, New Jersey. Cfb Ohio State Buckeyes At Rutgers Scarlet Knights[/caption]rn A BIG Problem rnThe Big 10 is dominating the Top 25 rankings with five of the top 11 spots. It looks like there could potentially be a bunch of one or two loss teams who stay in the top 12 overall. The AP rankings have already shown that a one loss team can remain in the Top 10 if they have a good win or a “good loss”. Because of that, Michigan State, Michigan, Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Iowa and Penn State can all likely suffer one or even two losses and remain ranked in the Top 12.rnrnIf BYU loses a game, they will likely drop out of the Top 15, even if that loss is to Baylor or Virginia. If the Cougars find themselves in that position, it will be really tough for them to claw back into the NY6 discussion. Could they do it if they beat USC? Maybe, but it will likely require some two or three loss teams ahead of them in the Big 10 to lose.rnrnThe issue is the Iowa vs Penn State game this weekend does very little to help out BYU. The loser of that game will likely only drop to No. 6 in the rankings, and then if Michigan or Michigan State also beats them, they drop to maybe No. 10 in the rankings. A one loss BYU won’t jump that. BYU’s best hope is that a team like Rutgers, Minnesota or Purdue can pull off a major upset and make one of those five teams not look so great. Even that however, could leave BYU in a bad spot.rnrnIn other words, any team ranked between Alabama to Michigan State is likely in a New Year Six Bowl with two losses before BYU is with only one loss.rnrn[nextslide teaser="NY6%20or%20Bust" /]rnrn rnrn[caption id="attachment_44424" align="aligncenter" width="3200"] Memphis Tigers defensive back Sanchez Blake Jr. chases down UTSA receiver Sheldon Jones at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium on Saturday, September 25, 2021. Jrca0692a[/caption]rn Disturbing Reality rnWhat is really sad and crazy about this season is that BYU has already agreed to play in the Independence Bowl against a Conference USA team if they are not selected to play in a New Year Six Bowl. While some projections are showing that undefeated UTSA would be the Cougar’s opponent, by contractual obligation, the Independence Bowl is third or fourth in the pecking order for the conference. As things currently stand, that would mean that UAB, UTEP or Charlotte, not exactly the type of team a typical 11-1 ranked team plays in a bowl game.rnrnPersonally, I think ESPN would pull some strings and find a way to put the Cougars in a better bowl game, but as it stands right now, it is NY6 or Shreveport, Louisiana.rnrnMy message to the team is simple: Keep winning and you don’t have to worry which bowl game the team will play in.

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BYU Football: Can BYU lose a game and still play in a NY6

BYU Football was ranked 10th in the AP Top 25 this past weekend.

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