A BIG Problem
The Big 10 is dominating the Top 25 rankings with five of the top 11 spots. It looks like there could potentially be a bunch of one or two loss teams who stay in the top 12 overall. The AP rankings have already shown that a one loss team can remain in the Top 10 if they have a good win or a “good loss”. Because of that, Michigan State, Michigan, Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Iowa and Penn State can all likely suffer one or even two losses and remain ranked in the Top 12.
If BYU loses a game, they will likely drop out of the Top 15, even if that loss is to Baylor or Virginia. If the Cougars find themselves in that position, it will be really tough for them to claw back into the NY6 discussion. Could they do it if they beat USC? Maybe, but it will likely require some two or three loss teams ahead of them in the Big 10 to lose.
The issue is the Iowa vs Penn State game this weekend does very little to help out BYU. The loser of that game will likely only drop to No. 6 in the rankings, and then if Michigan or Michigan State also beats them, they drop to maybe No. 10 in the rankings. A one loss BYU won’t jump that. BYU’s best hope is that a team like Rutgers, Minnesota or Purdue can pull off a major upset and make one of those five teams not look so great. Even that however, could leave BYU in a bad spot.
In other words, any team ranked between Alabama to Michigan State is likely in a New Year Six Bowl with two losses before BYU is with only one loss.