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BYU Football: Understanding the CFP rankings

By Adam Gibby

Sep 18, 2021; Provo, Utah, USA; BYU Cougars quarterback Jaren Hall (3) is pursued by Arizona State Sun Devils defensive back Evan Fields (4) in the fourth quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 18, 2021; Provo, Utah, USA; BYU Cougars quarterback Jaren Hall (3) is pursued by Arizona State Sun Devils defensive back Evan Fields (4) in the fourth quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 25, 2021; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners place kicker Gabe Brkic (47) kicks the game-winning field goal during the fourth quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 25, 2021; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners place kicker Gabe Brkic (47) kicks the game-winning field goal during the fourth quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports /

Losing a Game Doesn’t Mean Much if There is a Resume

Last year North Carolina was ranked No. 19 in the first CFP poll before losing to Notre Dame by two touchdowns. The next week they rose in the rankings by two spots to No. 17. Essentially the committee saw North Carolina as the 19th best team before the game, and when the Tarheels played better than expected against Notre Dame, the committee felt they were the 17th best team.

While examples like this are a bit more rare, the committee does for the most part stick with their rankings after a loss normally only dropping a team three to four spots whereas the AP poll is a bit more unforgiving often dropping teams more in the seven to eight spot range.

In other words, if a team is supposed to win by ten points and they only win by two, it would have been better for them to be favored to win by one and end up losing by one.

For teams like BYU last year, without much of a resume, the one time they lost they dropped further than any other team ever would. This year, with their resume, with the same kind of loss (Top 20 team), the Cougars would likely only drop two or three spots.

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