2. Beat Gonzaga once
It is hard to see a scenario where BYU beats Gonzaga once and doesn’t make the tournament. Sure, the Cougars theoretically could go 1-5 in all the big games and drop a few more to the bottom tiered teams and fall out, but that isn’t likely to happen.
What is likely to happen in this scenario is that BYU would end up 3-3 (or 4-2) in the big games and then be able to afford a loss to Portland, Santa Clara or Pacific. Yes, Cougarnation would freak out and think the season is over after a Pacific loss, but the Gonzaga win would equal everything out as if nothing happened.
Essentially, beating Gonzaga would give the Cougars a get out of jail free card in the eyes of the NCAA Committee. So could BYU miss the tournament while beating Gonzaga, sure, but I really like BYU’s chances.