Most likely scenario (and ugliest)
If Jaxson Dart comes to BYU, he will immediately be put in a situation where he is pushing to be the starting quarterback, and unfortunately the politics of sports may get in the way. If you don’t believe that is a thing, trust me it is.
If there is a tiebreaker or even a 55/45 split on who the better quarterback is, the coaching staff would have to go with Dart otherwise every other big time transfer would hesitate to commit to BYU in the future.
If Jaxson Dart is named the starter, BYU probably loses Jaren Hall, and quite possibly Jacob Conover as well. With Dart being in the same year as Conover, he would essentially be an all time backup now. With only likely one season left for Hall, he’d probably transfer to another big time program and try to get into the NFL next season.
The problem now is, what if Jaxson Dart doesn’t pan out? Tanner Mangum didn’t. Ben Olson didn’t (although he went to UCLA), and even to an extent Matt Haarms for BYU Basketball didn’t. Or what if he gets injured? Suddenly BYU Football is left with Cade Fennegan and Sol Jay Maiava, both decent quarterbacks, but not close to Jaren Hall or Jacob Conover.
Why this won’t happen: I’m not sure the coaching staff wants to be put in that situation. While they absolutely can not bench Dart (for the reasons mentioned above), they also don’t want to send the message that a starter who goes out and wins 10 games in a season is easily replaceable and there is very little loyalty for that. It’s a very muddy situation that I’m not sure Kalani Sitake is going to want to touch.
Why this will happen: Big 12, again. The biggest issue with Jaren Hall is that he won’t be the QB when the Cougars enter the Big 12. It is very likely that when BYU starts Big 12 play, they will be doing it with a first year starting quarterback. From that standpoint, I can see the coaches having at least some ground to make a really tough decision and replace Hall.
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Bottom line, should BYU be after Dart? I think so. I wouldn’t do it if they already have knowledge that Jaren Hall and Jacob Conover would leave, but aside from that scenario, when there is talent, you need to go out and get it.