BYU Basketball: Which seed would be best for the Cougars?

Despite popular belief, the highest seed possible may not be in BYU Basketball’s best interest.

Every once in a while having the best ‘something’ isn’t necessarily actually the best. For example, having the nicest car in the world while living in the ghetto probably raises your chances of being robbed. Having the best running shoes may prevent you from going out on a run if there is any wet roads or dirt. Instead, having a slightly less valuable car, and a typical running shoe may be in your best interest.

This is the same for BYU Basketball.

Sometimes, there are only two or three really good teams in college basketball. This year, that number is a very clear top five; Baylor, Gonzaga, Auburn, Kansas and Arizona. Outside of those five teams, every other team looks beatable.

Because of that, BYU Basketball wants to avoid anything on the top half of the bracket/region. Those seeds would be 16, 8, 9, 5, 12, 4 and 13. Realistically, the Cougars can’t play in the 16 or 13 seed line, and five is probably a bit high for them to achieve barring a miracle of beating Gonzaga twice.

Of those seeds,  th 8 and 9 seeds are the worst as those teams have to likely face a one seed in the Second Round.

That means that BYU wants to be on the side of the bracket that has the 2, 15, 3, 14, 6, 11, 7 and 10 seeds.

In other words, it would be better for BYU to be a 10 or 11 seed than an eight or nine seed, at least if they have hopes of making it to the Sweet Sixteen, or further.

But what does that actually mean for BYU Basketball? Realistically, the best that I can see BYU doing is going 1-1 against Gonzaga and undefeated against the rest of that schedule. That would likely put BYU in the five to six seed range. Surprisingly, the Cougars would probably want to play as a six seed, again to avoid a potential matchup against a one seed in the Sweet Sixteen.

Now more realistically, the Cougars will lose twice to Gonzaga and win out the rest of the way. That would put BYU in the six to seven seed range. That is where BYU wants to be. Either way, the Cougars would be on the opposite side of the bracket of the one seed.

Finally, if the Cougars drop a game or two they are expected to win and lose to Gonzaga twice, the Cougars should probably hope to drop to an 10 seed as opposed to playing in the eight/nine seed line. Yes, it would be better for the Cougars to play two seed lines lower if they hope to make a run.

In other words, barring a really good finish, the Cougars just need to avoid the 8/9 seed line. Considering that a 6, 7, 10, or 11 would do keep them out of the top half of the bracket, their chances are decently good. Interestingly enough, BYU will probably need to either play better than projected or worse than projected to do that.

Basketball is a weird sport, but yes we may want BYU to actually lose another game or two if they can’t beat Gonzaga at least once. Does it make sense? No. But is it correct? Somehow, yes.