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BYU Basketball: The bubble is very small, and that is a good thing

By Adam Gibby

Jan 13, 2022; Spokane, Washington, USA; Brigham Young Cougars forward Seneca Knight (24) defends a Gonzaga Bulldogs inbounds pass in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 13, 2022; Spokane, Washington, USA; Brigham Young Cougars forward Seneca Knight (24) defends a Gonzaga Bulldogs inbounds pass in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports /
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Feb 19, 2022; Moraga, California, USA; Brigham Young Cougars guard Alex Barcello (13) scores over Saint Mary’s Gaels forward Dan Fotu (42) during the first half at University Credit Union Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 19, 2022; Moraga, California, USA; Brigham Young Cougars guard Alex Barcello (13) scores over Saint Mary’s Gaels forward Dan Fotu (42) during the first half at University Credit Union Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports /

BYU Basketball likely has to win two games in the WCC Tournament to feel they have a chance to make the Big Dance.

Two weeks ago, I said that BYU Basketball’s dream of the NCAA Tournament was dead.  At the time, BYU was one of the first teams out of the bracket and had LMU and Pepperdine to finish out the season. The other reason I made this claim was that Florida had just beaten No. 2 Auburn the day before but only went up a few spots in most brackets. The way I saw it, even a win against USF in the WCC Tournament wouldn’t do much to help their cause.

But then March Madness started…in February.

All of the bubble teams began to lose, and not just lose, but lose consistently. According to Bracket Matrix BYU is in 55 of the 137 brackets, or just over of 40%. While that does not sound all that great, there are in total of only three total schools that are receiving serious consideration in the brackets while still being on the outside.

  • BYU 55 Votes
  • SMU 51 Votes
  • VCU 45 Votes

Every other team has less than 30 votes (20%).

Essentially what this means is that if teams fall out of the tournament, there aren’t a lot of candidates to make things murky. Murkiness is normally what keeps teams in. Look almost any year at a team who is right on the bubble (but in), who loses and stays right where they are. This isn’t because these bracketologists believe they should be in, rather because there are 7-10 teams all hanging around 30 votes, they just don’t affect anything.

A lot of time that is because there isn’t a clear next team just on the outside of the bubble. Right now, essentially if a team loses, they can only really be replaced by BYU, SMU or VCU.

This is great news for all three of these teams and their hopes to make the tourney.

Of course it should be noted that the 137 bracketologists on Bracket Matrix don’t represent the final NCAA Tournament Committee. On that same note however, the opinions of 137 independent thinkers is a good sample size to show that at least going into Conference Tournaments, there are realistically only three teams on the bubble hoping to make it in.

*Teams on the bubble but in are; Loyola Chicago, Memphis, and Indiana.

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