Every day it seems that BYU Basketball is slipping further away from the NCAA Tourney.
Three weeks ago, I said that if BYU Basketball did not win against St. Mary’s, then they were not going to make the NCAA Tournament. That appeared to be wrong when the Cougars were the first team out, and even momentarily in Lunardi’s (and most) brackets right before the WCC quarterfinal tipped off.
We all know what happened next.
Following the game, the Cougars seemed to fall only two or three spots in most brackets. This was expected as it was a Quad One loss. But the idea that they would have been in the tournament had they won may not be as clear cut as many believe.
To prove this point, let’s just look at Texas A&M. Yesterday, the Aggies knocked off the SEC No. 1 seed and likely NCAA one seeded team Auburn. Following that win, the Aggies only rose three spots in Lunardi’s and other brackets.
The same can be said about Virginia Tech taking down North Carolina.
If these teams are beating Top 25 teams and likely very highly seeded NCAA Tourney teams yet are only rising two-three spots, it can be reasonably understood that BYU likely would have only gone up one, maybe two spots had they beaten San Francisco.
At that point, the Cougars likely would have been the second or third team in the tournament.
Considering that BYU has fallen in most brackets four to five spots since that game, and with plenty of bubble teams still playing, it begs the question, were the Cougars actually safe had they beaten USF?
The answer is actually pretty clear, they would not have been. Sure, the bubble would be really hot right now and as fans we’d be watching every game that could help/hurt the Cougars chances, but to believe that BYU would have absolutely been in with a win is just not accurate.
The bottom line is P5 teams have to play their way OUT of the tournament, while Mid-Majors have to play themselves IN the tournament. The losses to Santa Clara and more specifically Pacific were likely enough to keep BYU from being able to really play themselves back IN barring beating Gonzaga or a Top 25 St. Mary’s.
I guess what I’m really trying to say is that the Big 12 can’t come soon enough.