The Cougars have been one of the hottest teams in college basketball, hot enough that CBS analyst Seth Davis is predicting them to reach the Elite 8.
— BYU Men's Basketball (@BYUMBB) March 16, 2025
March is a time when college basketball gets picked apart and put back together in every way possible. The highs get higher, and the lows sink lower. Let's take a look at some of the reasons BYU will (or maybe won't) win its first NCAA Tournament game in five tries and make a run.
1. Three Point Shooting
The Cougars are known for the way they shoot the ball from deep. Teams in the past have made runs purely based on this fact, they get hot for a few games and produce a few upsets. Is this something that could happen with BYU?
First, BYU shoots the fourth most 3-pointers of any Power 4 team in the country, behind only Illinois, Alabama, and Marquette (pretty good company). It currently has an average of 28.8 shots per game, which leads the Big 12 by almost two attempts. Not only do the Cougs take a lot of threes, they make a lot of threes. They currently shoot at a 37.1% clip, which is good for 36th in the country, and 12th among teams in the tournament.
BYU shot 50% from beyond the arc in a game against Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament, and should they do that in the "Big Dance", almost nobody could stand in their way.
2. Bench Depth
BYU head coach Kevin Young has the incredible fortune of one of the deepest benches in the entire country. The Cougars have been playing between 10-11 quality players, and having very little dropoff when they have to sub.
One of my favorite CBB statisticians and bracketologists, Evan Miyakawa detailed this in a recent video.
Having star power in March is important, but teams like Duke, Auburn, Alabama, BYU, and Gonzaga also have the high-level rotation players to put the pressure on any team for 40 minutes.
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 11, 2025
My analysis 👇 pic.twitter.com/ud6AVj952e
Top to bottom, BYU is very solid with players like Mihailo Boskovic, Trey Stewart, Dallin Hall, Fousseyni Traore, and Dawson Baker providing a spark from the bench.
This could prove pivotal for a March Madness run, especially against a team like VCU, which is 273rd in the nation in possessions per game. BYU may look to lean on its depth and run in transition.
3. Ball Security
I have preached this since the beginning of the season, in basically every preview or post game, every article, anything about BYU. Fewer turnovers = wins. In my mind, win the turnover margin and at worst seven times out of ten you will win the game, pretty darn good odds. Here are the games that BYU played in the Big 12.
Turnover Margin | Win/Loss |
|---|---|
+1 | W |
+4 | L |
-1 | L |
-10 | L |
-1 | W |
-3 | L |
+2 | W |
-5 | W |
+3 | W |
-7 | W |
+2 | L |
-1 | L |
-5 | W |
Even | W |
+5 | W |
+5 | W |
-2 | W |
-3 | W |
-18 | W |
+7 | W |
75% of the time that BYU wins the turnover margin, it wins the game. The team is sometimes able to overcome their struggles turning the ball over, because of its absolutely torrent offense. But it is a recipe for success to keep the ball in your own hands, especially against some of the teams that BYU would likely face on the path to glory this March.
Excitement and nerves abound for every team in March, and there is no shortage of that in Cougartown. Whether or not we are still watching the boys in blue in late March could depend on these things.