Just a few short weeks ago, BYU was almost completely off the radar of bracketologists across the country. The Cougars lost 4 of 5 games to begin January, including a disappointing one point loss to rival Utah. You’d probably have to click “Next, next, next 4 out” to find BYU in a projected bracket, if that were an option.
But with things about to fall apart completely, Kevin Young turned the ship around and rattled off 4 straight wins to not only keep the Cougars alive, but put them back in the bracket altogether. The highlight of that stretch came when Kanon Catchings went nuclear to take down Baylor in overtime. However, Arizona was able to cool the Cougars off and win in Provo this past Tuesday. So where does BYU stand in the projected March Madness bracket right now? And what do they have to do to ensure their spot?
The good news is that as things stand today, BYU appears to be in. Bracket Matrix, a collection and average of nearly 100 different projected brackets, currently has the Cougars in the tourney. But not by much, as they’re just the second to last team to get in. Most of the brackets to be updated after the Arizona loss have BYU as an 11 seed, but there are a few that have the Cougars out of the tournament altogether.
Despite their precarious position in the bracket, BYU remains one of the most formidable teams on the bubble. Among ESPN’s 16 bubble teams (the last 8 in, and the first 8 out), BYU has the second highest KenPom rating at 33, behind only Ohio State. The Cougars also have two head-to-head wins over the bubble, with victories over Arizona State and UCF.
So why is BYU on the bubble at all if they're clearly better than the rest of the bubble teams? The problem for the Cougars’ is a resume that lacks any big wins. Their best victory of the season came last week in the win over Baylor. And while impressive, the Bears are far from healthy and currently project as an 8 or 9 seed, not exactly the kind of team you want to be your biggest win of the season.
BYU had a golden opportunity for a marquee win with a home game against Arizona, but a cold stretch to end the game doomed the Cougars.
They’ve got three more chances to notch a win that will really move the needle before the season ends. Road games at Arizona and Iowa State will be difficult, but not impossible. Their best chance probably comes in a few weeks, when a top 3 seed Kansas comes to Provo. The Jayhawks have also struggled on the road this season, but they’ll be looking to get revenge for last season’s loss to BYU at Allen Fieldhouse.
You can circle this one as the biggest game remaining on BYU’s schedule, as well as a payback opportunity for what happened on the gridiron.
Outside of those 3 big games, road matchups at Cincinnati (this Saturday), West Virginia, and Arizona State will provide BYU the opportunity to get a Quad 1 win. Improving their current Quad 1 record of 2-5 will be the most important thing that Kevin Young’s squad can do between now and mid March. Of course, a good Big 12 tournament run in Kansas City will also help them in that aspect.
So with just over a month to go, the Cougars are walking a thin line on the bubble. If it were up to predictive metrics and potential, BYU would be a lock. But what you do during the season has to mean something. If they can win a couple on the road and find a way to beat one of the conference powers, then the Cougars will be alive and well come March.