The last few days have been filled with great news for BYU men's basketball fans. Rob Wright is returning after all, and Colin Chandler and Jake Wahlin, two great players we all thought BYU was getting in previous seasons, have decided to come over this season. The only way this could get any better would be if AJ Dybantsa comes back.
But there's no way he is, right?
Almost everyone projects him to be either the first or second overall pick in the NBA draft, and there's no way he can turn this down, right? Just about every person I've heard talk about AJ is either saying they would be shocked if he stayed at BYU or is ignoring that possibility altogether and skipping straight to talking about where he will be drafted. And when everyone in the media is this confident about something, they're always right, right?
Here's the thing: If AJ's number one goal is to be drafted as early as possible or to make as much money as possible, then there is absolutely no question that the right move is to go straight to the NBA. If he stays at BYU, his draft stock has almost nowhere to go but down. But what if those aren't his number one goals? What if there's something he values more than where he's drafted or how much money he makes?
Now, I'm not saying I know anything about AJ that most people don't know that could in any way imply he's coming back. What I'm saying is that we can't be as certain about these kinds of things as we think we can.
One thing I've noticed about human nature is that we're overly confident in our ability to guess what people want. We watch a Hallmark movie where a woman has to choose between a rich jerk and a poor, relatable guy, we guess that she's going to end up with the poor, relatable guy, and she does, so we think we're experts at evaluating people's desires. But the reality is that real life is more complicated, and we're not as good at this as we think we are.
AJ isn't a character in a movie or a video game. He and every other athlete are human beings. And not all human beings value the same things at the same levels. If I were to provide a list of values such as money, stability, connection, romance, friendship, autonomy, respect, fun, selflessness, order, religion, and love, and I asked a bunch of people to rank them in order of importance, our lists would all look completely different, and that's OK. There is no objectively correct order.
Now, what if I were to give AJ a list of things specifically related to his decision, like money, recognition, good teammates, support, good coaches, where he wants to live, stability, learning, being certain about his future, whether he wants to play 35 games or 82, improving his basketball skills, improving his other skills, listening to his parents, the thrill of the game, having stronger opponents, wanting to make a difference, and other factors I'm not even aware of?
I have no idea how he would rank them, and neither do you. Maybe none of the benefits of staying at BYU are important enough to him to make him want to turn down being the number 1 or 2 draft pick, and I would have no issues with him whatsoever if that is the case. But maybe there's something we're unaware of that will sway him to return.
So will AJ go to the NBA? Will he stay at BYU? Will he transfer to another school? Will he quit basketball altogether and go into cheese making? Who knows? None of these decisions would be objectively right or wrong. It all depends on what AJ values, and whatever it is, I respect it.
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