Winners of six straight and eight of their last ten, the BYU Cougars are starting to make quite a bit of noise under first-year head coach Kevin Young. They seem to have figured things out in recent play, and are now considered a lock for the NCAA Tournament, their second consecutive appearance. BYU has lost its first game of the tournament in four straight appearances (Oregon in 2014, Ole Miss in 2015, UCLA in 2021, and Duquesne in 2024.) Let's take a look at how they might fare this year.
Best Case Scenario
In my opinion the best case scenario requires BYU to win at least one game in the Big 12 Tournament. Should it beat Iowa State tonight, then BYU would all but lock in a two-round bye in the tournament, meaning that a win would earn it a spot in the semifinals.
A Big 12 tournament semifinal appearance would push BYU into the conversation for a 5 or 6 seed, rather than the 8 or 9 seed projection it currently has. I believe that BYU could easily jump Kansas (somehow currently projected as a 6 seed) and play it's first two games of the NCAA Tournament in Denver. Current projections would have the Cougars face off against Nebraska, and then either Texas A&M or UVU (Go Wolverines!)
Worst Case Scenario
In my mind, the worst case scenario is that BYU loses out (against Iowa State and at home against Utah), and then loses it's first game of the Big 12 Tournament. I think that either keeps BYU at an 8 seed or pushes them down to a 9 seed.
There are a lot of complications with BYU playing as a 9 seed, since they won't play games on Sunday, and there are really only a few places they can play. In all honesty, this scenario probably pushes BYU down to a 10 or even 11 seed. This has happened as recently as last year.
This means that BYU would likely be playing against a much better team than it should be able to stay at an 8 seed. Below are the current projected 6 and 7 seeds, which BYU would be matched up against if it were to be selected as a 10 or 11 seed.
7 Seeds | 6 Seeds |
|---|---|
Mississippi State | Kansas |
Memphis | Saint Mary's |
Louisville | UCLA |
Ole Miss | Marquette |
Not that BYU couldn't beat any of these teams, I'm looking at you Kansas, but in March every inch matters.
Most Probable Scenario
I am going to use Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, as he is usually fairly accurate.
He currently has BYU as an 8 seed, playing against 9 seed Utah State in the first round. What a match up. The script writers cooked here, as the kids would say. Throwback image for you here as well.
Barring any upsets, BYU would then face a path of 1 seeded Houston, 4 seeded St. John's, and 2 seeded Florida to reach the NCAA Championship. All things considered that isn't too bad.
Regardless of what happens, we will be cheering on our Cougars.
Loyal, strong, and true
Wear the white and blue.