The Cougars will hit the road this weekend, as they look to take on Arizona State in a game with major conference championship implications. BYU will be trying to rebound after suffering an upset at the hands of Kansas, while ASU is coming off of a huge win against the other Sunflower State school, Kansas State.
And while the Cougars have certainly learned not to overlook any competition in recent weeks, it would be hard to overlook this Sun Devil team anyways. Head coach Kenny Dillingham has orchestrated a turnaround that rivals that of BYU’s, and now has his squad sitting at third in the Big 12, putting them in perfect contention for a conference title.
Win against BYU, and they’ll be sitting as good as anyone. Meanwhile, a win for the Cougars would almost guarantee them a spot in the Big 12 championship game. So in other words, the stakes couldn’t be much higher for this regular season contest.
Pre-game Notes for BYU
While BYU’s dreams of a perfect season flew out the window, there is still more than enough to play for. Winning the Big 12 Championship would be a major, previously unthinkable accomplishment, which would also guarantee them a spot in the College Football Playoff. In addition, a win against the Sun Devils would be a big resume booster, which the Cougars could use after their recent fall in the rankings.
For about the fifth straight game, BYU will up against a premier running back and will have to make sure its run defense comes to play. While Ollie Gordon, RJ Harvey, and Devin Neal are all among the best running backs in the nation, Cam Skattebo ranks right there with them and has single handedly won ASU multiple games.
The senior running back is the only FBS player with 1,000 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards. BYU’s run defense has been suspect at times, but they most recently held KU's Devin Neal to his worst performance of the season. There's little doubt over the BYU secondary and their nation leading 17 interceptions. If the Cougar run defense also shows up, then they should be in pretty good shape for a big road win.
The BYU offense will certainly have to improve on its performance in recent weeks, especially in the red zone. The Cougars scored just two field goals and zero touchdowns in their four red zone trips last week. In fact, they’ve only scored one touchdown in their last seven red zone trips over the past two games. This misfortune includes a goal line fade interception in the end zone right before halftime on Saturday night, which provided the Jayhawks with a huge swing of momentum and allowed them to stay within striking distance.
The BYU offense will also be going up against one of the better run defenses in the Big 12, so it will be important to establish at least a little bit of a rushing attack in order to avoid obvious passing situations for the offense. The Sun Devils allow just 3.8 yards per rush, but LJ Martin has been playing great ever since a return from injury.
This game may also be decided by the turnovers, Both teams are tied for 14th in the country with a plus nine turnover margin. ASU does it by taking care of the ball, while the Cougars can be a bit more careless offensively, but make up for it by forcing a ton of turnovers on the defensive side. A huge turnover caused by either team could be the difference in this one.
Pre-game checklist for BYU
-Stop Cam Skattebo at all costs, especially early in drives. The BYU defense will need to frequently force 3rd and long to get off the field.
-Find ways to score touchdowns in the red zone, even if it means abandoning the infamous goal line fade
-Force at least one turnover. ASU doesn't turn it over often and Leavitt hasn't thrown an interception since Oct. 11.
Pre-game Notes for Arizona State
Arizona State is playing its best football of the season right now, coming off of a beatdown win against Kansas State in Manhattan, where they were up 21-0 at halftime. And while Skattebo may receive a lot of the attention, he is really just one piece of ASU’s three headed monster, in addition to quarterback Sam Leavitt and receiver Jordyn Tyson.
Coach Dillingham’s squad has lost just one game this season with Leavitt as the starter, that also being the only game in which the redshirt freshman has had a QBR below 50. His go-to target Jordyn Tyson has been on fire recently. He leads the Big 12 with nine touchdown catches and has been averaging over 100 yards per game over his last six contests.
Another reason for Arizona State’s success this season has been their ability to convert on 3rd down. They are 16th in the country and 2nd in the Big 12, converting 47.1% of the time. Against Kansas State on Saturday, they were 9-15 on 3rd down, with seven of those conversions being made by Skattebo or Tyson.
Defensively, Arizona State has been good, but not amazing, having the fourth best rushing defense and sixth best passing defense in the Big 12. They don’t do anything spectacular, but are coming off by far their best performance against K-State.
The key for the Sun Devil defense will be how they are able to get after Retzlaff. The BYU quarterback is especially accurate when he has time, but can struggle against heavy pressure. Unfortunately for the Sun Devils, ASU has the second worst pass rushing grade in college football, according to PFF. If they can improve on this while also maintaining their defense against LJ Martin and company, then they’ll have a great chance to escape with a win.
Pre-game checklist for Arizona State
-Improve the pass rush and blitz frequently to get after Jake Retzlaff
-Don't let the Cougars run away early. The longer ASU can stay in the game and milk time with Cam Skattebo, the better. The last thing the Sun Devils want to do is repeatedly challenge BYU's secondary in order to make a comeback
-Do their usual thing and limit turnovers against the most active defense in the country