BYU men's basketball will be looking into the mirror when they match up against Cincinnati Saturday night in Provo. The two teams come in with identical records, 12-6, and are separated by six places on KenPom, and just two spots in the NCAA Net Rankings.
Both the Cougars and the Bearcats had high expectations coming into the season, and performed decently enough in their non-conference games, before stumbling in the Big 12. Saturday presents the opportunity for one of them to build momentum and get back on track, while a loss could be detrimental to NCAA Tournament hopes.
The Cougars are coming off a dominant road win over Colorado, where their first-half struggles were quickly forgotten about in a 23-2 run to open the second half. Egor Demin looked much better, while Richie Saunders continued to be the driving force of the offense that he’s been this season. They’ll need plenty of help though, if they want to break this Cincinnati defense.
Cincinnati Defense: One of the Best in the Country
The Bearcats, on the other hand, are coming off of a ten point loss at the hands of Texas Tech. They currently sit in the “first four out” of both ESPN’s and CBS’s projected brackets, so it’s safe to say they’ll be as desperate as anyone when they walk into the Marriott Center.
While the offense has struggled to get going at times (they suffered a 54-40 home loss to Kansas), their defense has been elite. KenPom has them as the ninth best defense in the entire country and opponents shoot just 28% from 3, the fourth best mark in the nation.
They’re also tough to score on inside. Cincy ranks 4th in the Big 12 in blocks per game at 4.9, and are the 11th lowest fouling team in the country as well. Aziz Bandoago in particular is one to watch out for down low. The 7 foot, Senegalese center has become a powerful force blocking shots, grabbing rebounds, and finishing lobs. In short, the Bearcats force tough shots both on the perimeter and near the rim that can completely ruin an opponent’s offense.
Cincinnati Offense: Athleticism and Rebounding
Offensively, Cincinnati has a lot of experience mixed with some high upside talent. Luckily for BYU, they don’t shoot it a ton from deep, but are more reliant on making baskets inside the arc. Former 5-star and McDonald's All-American Dillon Mitchell is now in his third year and having his best season after transferring from Texas. He’ll probably be the most athletic player on the floor Saturday night and could have a highlight play or two, especially in transition. His teammate Dan Skillings Jr. also has some NBA potential as a three level scorer and lengthy defender who can get hot in a hurry.
When they’re not utilizing Mitchell or Skillings, the Bearcats love to get their guards going downhill and towards the rim. Simas Lukosius, Jizzle James, and Day Day Thomas are all exceptional drivers and creative finishers. Lukosius and Skillings are also the ones BYU won't want to leave open from deep. The Bearcats don't have any true snipers, but those two will make you pay when left open.
One more thing to note about Cincinnati is their rebounding. Some of their best offense comes after a missed shot, as they are a top 50 offensive rebounding team in the country. BYU still ranks as the best defensive rebounding team, so the battle on the boards will be one to watch.
Keys to the Game
- Be the more physical team. Cincinnati doesn’t foul or get fouled too often, so BYU should look to take advantage of a less physical team.
- Grab the defensive rebounds. BYU usually does a good job at this, but it will be much harder when Bandaogo is on the floor.
- Get out in transition. The less the Cougars have to face a set Cincinnati defense, the better.
Saturday night could be a make or break game for either team. Big 12 positioning is on the line, as is a nice win for the March resume. A Cincinnati win could put them back in the field, while a BYU victory should put them back on the bubble. If the Cougars can be the more physical team on defense, and find literally any way to score on offense, they should be in good shape.