On Tuesday, ESPN held the College Football Rankings show, their last of the regular season, before revealing the final shape of the playoff picture. The top of the rankings featured the usual suspects of the 2025 season, with Ohio State, Indiana, and Texas Tech remaining firmly in position to obtain a first-round bye, while Texas A&M fell out of position following a loss to 9-3 Texas. This late-season movement allowed a worthy 11-1 Georgia team to jump up to number three, having beaten ranked Ole Miss, Texas, and Georgia Tech in the last month and change.
The next group of teams, those ranked just outside of the top four but are firmly in the playoff regardless of the results of conference championship weekend go as such: Oregon at #5, Ole Miss at #6, Texas A&M at #7. These are all 11-win teams that play in top conferences so their records will, pardon my pun, “just mean more.” An argument could be made as to their placement of Oklahoma at #8. I think a lot of fans and AP voters would throw OU in with the next group of teams but the committee seems to love the Sooners based on their resume highlighted by wins over Alabama and a now red-hot Texas team. OU’s resume also includes consecutive wins over #14 Tennessee, #4 Alabama, #22 Mizzou and LSU. They also have wins over Michigan and Auburn who were ranked #15 and #22 at kickoff.
This next category of teams, the ones barely getting in or barely missing the cut. This, unfortunately, is where some real consequential decisions will be made by a group of individuals who have shown little acumen for making such decisions. As I am typing this, the committee has Alabama at #9, Notre Dame at #10, BYU at #11, and Miami at #12.
BYU coach Kalani Sitake might be on to something here re: the CFP and Championship Weekend:
— Sean Walker (@ActuallyDSW) December 3, 2025
"If teams aren't going to play in a championship game, but they are going to be in the Playoff — they should all play a 13th game."pic.twitter.com/FtZp8QX9SN
Notre Dame and Miami’s records are set in stone and the results on conference championship weekend will determine their fate. That leaves BYU and Alabama playing for a spot to get in the back door.
If Alabama wins, they finish 11-2 with two wins over Georgia, which means they’re in. BYU, like Alabama, will be playing a team for the second time, but unlike the Tide, will be attempting to even the score. If BYU takes down Texas Tech, finishing 12-1 and winning the Big 12, they’re in. It helps both of these teams that their opponents are afforded the luxury to treat this week like a pseudo-bye, as they’re already locked in positions in the CFP.
The only team stealing a Playoff spot is Alabama, who the committee shoved up into the Top 9 on purpose last week to make sure someone like little non-SEC BYU couldn’t “STEAL” one of the reserved SEC spots.
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) December 4, 2025
BYU should be Top 7. THEIR spot is getting stolen. https://t.co/0b7zZBiwii
As we all know, this isn’t simply a best 1-12 playoff format, there are qualifiers which bring the following teams into the fold:
Virginia can get into the playoff by beating Duke, securing an 11-2 record with an ACC title, that would get them in based off of resume alone.
JMU has a chance to secure that coveted at-large G5 bid if they defeat Troy in the Sun Belt championship. They’re 23.5 favorites at the moment, so cheering for the Trojans could be a futile effort for the BYU faithful.
If Duke wins the ACC, the ACC won’t get into the College Football Playoff.
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) December 4, 2025
2 Group of 5 teams would be in the CFP including the winner of North Texas-Tulane and JMU if beat Troy as the 4th and 5th highest ranked conference champions.
If Duke wins and JMU loses then the winner… pic.twitter.com/xww5WPzVnh
Tulane plays North Texas for the AAC championship featuring records of 10-2 and 11-1. I believe winning this game would be more impressive than anything JMU has done this season so that promised G5 playoff spot is likely coming out of this game. This matchup having so much playoff implication probably renders it the most consequential game in conference history for the AAC.
If Duke beats Virginia and two of these G5 teams really impress this weekend, BYU is in serious trouble. Two G5 teams getting in is the worst case scenario for both the Big 12 and the ACC.
An interesting thought exercise in determining who should be awarded these final coveted spots would be to measure BYU with the other programs jockeying for playoff position. If played on a neutral site this Saturday, how would BYU fare against each of these other teams?
Alabama and Notre Dame would give the Cougars some trouble; I’d expect either team to be a 7-9 point favorite over BYU on a neutral site. Miami would be the most compelling matchup, they’ve finished their season strong with a string of blowout wins but I don’t think they’ve faced an opponent since Notre Dame with nearly as much defensive acumen as BYU. Edge: Cougars.
That leaves Virginia, Tulane, JMU and UNT. Anything’s possible in college football and if BYU played all four of them consecutively, one of those games might come down to the wire. I’d take BYU over them all.