I've decided to basically do my own BYU football version of Bad Beats. For those of you who have never heard of Bad Beats, it's a hilarious segment on ESPN's SportsCenter done by Scott Van Pelt and Stanford Steve where they show highlights of games where it appeared that certain gamblers were going to win their bets, and then something unexpected happened that made them lose.
For those of you unfamiliar with sports betting, the two most common bets are the over/under and the point spread. With the over/under, the betting site will estimate how many combined points there will be, and people can either bet on the point total being more than that number or less than that number.
With the point spread, the site estimates which team will win by how many points, and people can bet on that team winning by more than that number of points, or they can bet that either they will win by less than that number or the other team will win. For example, if BYU is favored by 3.5 points against Utah, you can either bet BYU -3.5, meaning BYU has to win by more than 3.5, or Utah +3.5, meaning either Utah has to win or BYU has to win by less than 3.5.
Before I go any further, I want to make it clear that I am not promoting gambling. Gambling is bad for your emotional health, and it's usually set up in a deceptive way where you're expected to lose money. Plus, it would be ironic if just a couple weeks after writing my article about how athletes who are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints shouldn't be required to promote Monster Energy Drinks even though they're not explicitly against the word of wisdom, I promoted something that actually is explicitly against the teachings of this church.
All that being said, I also want to make it clear that I don't think I'm better than people who gamble. I also don't think there's anything wrong with laughing about gambling. So let's get right into it with our top 13 Bad Beats from the Kalani Sitake Era. I figured 13 was a fitting number. Also, I know you all care a lot more about BYU winning than about getting your bet, but just for this, pretend that you just want to win your bet and you don't care who wins. Also, note that these point spreads and over-unders aren't official because there are multiple sites that change them throughout the week, but they are all totally realistic.
13. BYU vs. Utah Tech 2022, Utah Tech +25.5: For some reason, you decided it was a good idea to bet on an FBS vs. FCS game. You're basically begging for a bad beat. And sure enough, you have the great start that you normally expect for bad beats. At one point, late in the first half, Utah Tech is up 20-14. You're planning your trip to St. George, and it's definitely so you can watch my Orem High School Marching Band compete in their final competitions of the season. (Band geeks for the win.)
From that point, BYU scores 31 unanswered points to go up 45-20, but you're still covering by half a point. Utah Tech takes it down the field and seemingly seals the deal for you with an 18-yard touchdown pass from Victor Gabalis to Joey Hobert, making it 45-26. If Utah Tech kicks the extra point, you're covering by 7.5 points, and you're good even if BYU scores a touchdown. But nope. They decide to go for 2, and they don't get it. That's OK, though, because there's only 1:49 to play, and there's no way BYU's even going to want to score again, right?
Wrong. A few plays after recovering the onside kick, Terrence Fall, the zillionth string tight end, takes the fly-sweep handoff 25 yards for a touchdown. The extra point is good, making it 52-26, Utah Tech doesn't do anything in the final minute, and it looks like you're going to have to watch the Orem High School Marching Band in some other competition closer to home.
12. BYU vs. Mississippi St 2016, Under 48.5: It's early in the fourth quarter, and Mississippi St is leading 14-7, putting the total at 21. Your under 48.5 bet is in the bag. You're planning your vacation to... anywhere but Starkville. After a weird series of events that involves multiple penalties on both teams, this guy whose name you can't even pronounce (Moroni Laulu-Pututau) makes an amazing grab for the touchdown. The game is now tied at 14, and the total is 28.
The further into the fourth quarter the game goes, the more you actually want someone to score because as Scott Van Pelt says, overtime is not the friend of the under bettor. But BYU can't move the ball, and MSU has two drives stall around the BYU 30. On the final play of regulation, Taysom has the ball stripped, MSU's AJ Jefferson picks it up, and he appears to have a clear path to the endzone, but he trips over Taysom, and so we're going to overtime. But you're still fine as long as there's only one overtime.
MSU gets the ball first, and Nick Fitzgerald basically does a front flip into the endzone. That makes it 21-14, and the total is 35. Now, you need the Dogs to stop the Cougs. On 1st and 10 at the 14, Taysom once again has the ball stripped. If Mississippi St falls on it, it's over. Even if BYU falls on it, it's 2nd and long. But no. Tanner Balderee picks it up and runs it for six yards. A couple plays later, Taysom punches it in, and now the total is 42, and we're going to a second overtime.
On the first play of the second overtime, Tanner Balderee catches it in the backfield, dodges a couple tacklers, and take it in for the touchdown. The extra point is good, putting the total at 49. You don't even bother to watch Mississippi St's possession because it's over, and it's after midnight in most time zones. You officially hate the way college overtime works.
11. BYU vs. Tennessee 2019, Under 54.5: This one is actually on Bad Beats. There's 54 seconds left, and the Volunteers are up 16-13, putting the total at 29. BYU begins their final drive at their own 16 with no timeouts. After a holding penalty and an incomplete pass makes it 2nd and 18 at the 8, your bet feels so safe that you start planning your trip to visit that one guy in Tennessee who said he was your cousin even though he's not.
Zach Wilson takes off for a 12 yard run, but you're fine with that because now, the clocks running. Tennessee knows all they have to do is not let anyone get past their secondary. And so naturally, Micah Simon gets past the secondary, and Wilson puts it right on the money. As he's running, you realize that you actually want him to go all the way for the touchdown because then it's 20-16, and the total is still well below 54.5 with only a few seconds left. But nope. He's stopped. Jake Oldroyd just barely makes the field goal, and now we're headed to overtime, which is the bane of your existence if you're an under bettor.
BYU gets the ball first, and Talon Shumway scores to make it 23-16. Now, you need BYU to stop Tennessee. It gets to 3rd and 11... and then Jarrett Guarantano completes it to Josh Palmer for 13 yards and the first down. Then it gets to 3rd and 10... and Guarantano completes it to Jauan Jennings for the touchdown. Maybe they'll go for 2? Nope. They kick the extra point to tie it at 23 and send it to a second overtime.
Now, the total is 46, giving you 8.5 points to work with. If one team gets a field goal and the other gets nothing, that's fine. If one team gets a touchdown and the other gets nothing, that's fine. What's not fine? Tennessee getting a field goal and BYU getting a touchdown. (I mean, it's totally fine for you, the BYU fan, but not for you, the under 54.5 bettor.) To quote Greg Wrubell, you're "pushing, pushing, pushing, pushing, pushing" your head into the wall.
10. BYU vs. Houston 2020, Houston +13.5: At first, with BYU leading 14-3, your Houston +13.5 bet isn't looking too good. But then, Houston scores 23 consecutive points to go up 26-14, and now, you're planning your trip to... oh wait, never mind. This was during COVID. BYU does come back to take a 29-26 lead on a play where you lost track of where the ball was because of the way Zach Wilson threw it, but you're still covering the spread by 10.5 points.
With 3 minutes left, on 3rd and 15, Wilson throws a strike to Dax Milne for a touchdown. Sure, whatever. You're still covering, and there's no way BYU's even going to want to score again, right?
Well, Houston turns it over on downs, and BYU takes over at the Houston 17. Houston has three timeouts, so BYU can't quite take a knee. Instead, on the second play of the drive, Tyler Allgeier takes it in for the touchdown, and your mouth is open so wide, your mask doesn't even cover it. Houston doesn't even really try to score in the last two minutes because they don't care about you, and that's it. You were covering the spread by 25.5 points, and you lost. Unbelievable.
9. BYU vs. Kansas St 2024, First Half Total Under 22.5: The fourth quarter and overtime just haven't been going your way, so you have a solution. Just make a first-half bet, and then it doesn't matter what happens in the fourth quarter or overtime. After a three-and-out by BYU, Kansas St goes on a 6-minute drive that ends with a field goal, BYU has a 6-minute drive that ends with a punt, Kansas St has an 8-minute drive that ends with a field goal, and BYU goes on a 7-minute drive that ends with a field goal. You love this as an under bettor.
There's only 2 minutes left, and Kansas St is up 6-3, making the total just 9, which is well under 22.5. You're planning your trip to Oz so you don't have to be in Kansas anymore. With 1:08 to play, Jack Kelly forces a fumble, and Tommy Prassas takes it back for a touchdown, making it 10-6 and putting the total at 16, and you're thinking, "Here we go again." Just 11 seconds later, Avery Johnson throws a pick to this refrigerator named Tyler Batty, and two plays later, Jake Retzlaff connects with Chase Roberts for a 23-yard touchdown to make it 17-6. That puts the total at 23, and your pillow is defying gravity and going over the rainbow.
8. BYU vs. Stanford 2022, Stanford +8.5: You graduated from Stanford 10 years ago, and you're still paying off your student loans with your minimum wage job you could've gotten while you were in high school. You decide to put your entire life savings into betting Stanford +8.5 so you can pay off 1% of your loan. Early in the fourth quarter, BYU's leading 35-12, and you're thinking, "Wait a minute. If this is a bad beat, isn't my bet supposed to start off doing well? If I'm in a bad spot, does that mean I'm going to end up winning?"
It does start to look that way. Ashton Daniels punches it in from 1 yard, and Stanford gets the 2-point conversion to make it 35-20. BYU goes three and out, and Stanford takes it down the field and scores another touchdown on a 7-yard pass from Tanner McKee to Brycen Tremayne with 4:39 to play to make it 35-26. For a second, you're thinking, "They just need to make the extra point, and then we're covering." But then, you realize, "Oh wait, they might go for two to make it a 7 point game.'
But the field goal unit comes out, and you pump your fist. Joshua Karty has already missed an extra point, so there's no way he's going to miss another one, right? Technically, he doesn't. The snap is bobbled, the Cardinal don't get the kick off, and BYU is still covering. The Cougars kill the rest of the clock, and you start considering other ways to pay off your debt, like changing your name to Liberty Mutual Customizes Your Car Insurance So You Only Pay For What You Need Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Smith.
7. BYU vs. Oklahoma St 2023, BYU +5.5: Alright. I know I said to pretend that you're not a BYU fan and that you just want to get your bet, but let's face it, you're still a BYU fan. If you want to avoid reliving a painful memory, you're going to want to skip this one, and you're definitely going to want to skip the next one as well. If you're still reading, I'll assume you've decided to be brave. Brace yourself..
You've taken BYU +5.5, and they're up 24-6 at halftime. You're planning your trip to whichever bowl game BYU's going to with this certain sixth win. On the first possession of the second half, BYU punts. Oklahoma St scores a touchdown to make it 24-13. BYU punts. Oklahoma St punts. BYU punts. Oklahoma St throws an interception. BYU punts. Oklahoma St scores a touchdown and makes the 2-point conversion to make it 24-21. BYU punts. Oklahoma St punts. BYU punts. (You noticing a pattern here?)
Then, with 53 seconds left in the game, Ollie Gordon runs it in from 15 yards to give the Cowboys a 27-24 lead. But remember, you're just trying to get your bet. (Even though I did tell you you were going to BYU's bowl game. Yea, inconsistencies.) BYU's still covering, and as long as Oklahoma St makes the extra point, you don't have to worry about overtime. Naturally, the extra point is blocked. But that's OK because BYU hasn't been moving the ball the entire second half, so there's no way they're going to get into field goal range in 53 seconds, right?
Yes they do. Will Ferrin drills it from 48 yards to make it 27-27, and we're going to overtime.
BYU gets the ball first, and they score a touchdown on a 6-yard run by Jake Retzlaff, making it 34-27. Awesome. Now you just need a stop. Nope. Ollie Gordon runs it in from 3 yards, and naturally, now that you want them to miss the extra point, they make it, and it's 34-34. We're going to a second overtime.
If BYU wins, that works. If Oklahoma St wins with a field goal, that works. If it goes to the third overtime, that works because it guarantees that no one can win by more than 2 points. The only thing you can't have is Oklahoma St scoring a touchdown and BYU getting nothing. So naturally, Ollie Gordon punches it in from 2 yards to make it 40-34, and Trey Rucker rips it away from Isaac Rex to end the game. Not only is BYU not going to a bowl game, but even if they were, you can't afford to go-
6. BYU vs. Utah 2018, BYU+7.5: OK, so you made it through the last one, but now, it gets even worse. Do not read this one if you experience football-induced PTSD. If you do decide to read it, make sure you're not holding anything breakable, and make sure you have immediate access to a cougar tail, a video of one of BYU's recent wins over Utah, and another video of Utah's Kaelin Clay fumbling the ball at the goal line. You're going to need all the help you can get to recover from this.
It's late in the third quarter, and BYU's up 27-7. You're planning your expensive party to celebrate the streak being over, which you will pay for with your winnings from taking BYU +7.5. (There's no way I'm expecting you to pretend you're not a BYU fan for this one.) And then it's 27-14. And then it's 27-21. And then, with 3 minutes left, Armand Shine shakes off a bunch of tackles and runs it in from 5 yards, Utah makes the extra point, and the Utes have come all the way back to lead 28-27. But at least BYU's still covering, and there's no way Utah would even want to score again, right?
Well, BYU turns it over on downs, and Utah takes over at the BYU 33 with just under 2 minutes to play. On the first play of the drive, Jason Shelley takes off and gets the first down. BYU still has all three... oh wait! He's going to take it all the way for the touchdown! The extra point is good, and now it's 35-27, and BYU is no longer covering. You could argue that Shelley should've gone down because now, BYU's going to get the ball back, and it's still a one possession game, but apparently, he had pulled a Brendan Sorsby and bet on his own team to cover.
On 4th and 7, with BYU needing to get to the Utah 48, Matt Bushman is stopped at the 48 1/2. Utah kneels it out, and you are in absolute shambles.
OK, now come back to 2026. It's over now. You made it. I'm sorry to put you through that. Go ahead, close your eyes, think about BYU's current 3-game win streak against the Utes, and repeat three times the phrase, "There's a Bear on the loose in Provo."
5. BYU vs. San Diego St 2020, Over 42.5: This one's also on Bad Beats. You've learned your lesson about taking the under, so this time, you're taking the over. What kind of disaster can happen this time? At halftime, BYU leads 17-14, the total is 31, and you are well on your way to locking this one up. You're planning your trip to Sea World, not because you are interested in the animal life at all, but just so you can spend the whole day riding Journey to Atlantis.
The Aztecs take it to the BYU 10... and fumble. BYU spends almost 7 minutes taking it to the SDSU 12... and settles for a field goal. It's now 20-14, and the total is 34. San Diego St takes almost 7 minutes to get to the BYU 28... and then they turn it over on downs. It's now the fourth quarter. Finally, you catch a break with BYU scoring a touchdown on just a three-minute drive, and they even get the 2-point conversion. So it's now 28-14 with 11 minutes to play, and you just need someone to get one more score of any kind.
San Diego St goes on an 8-minute drive, and you're thinking, "Please, if you're going to take all this time in a game where you're trailing, can you at least put up some points this time?" Unfortunately, you know they're not going to kick a field goal because they're trying to win the game, not help you out. It's 3rd and Goal at the 1. Handoff to Greg Bell, nothing. 4th and Goal at the 1. Jordon Brookshire takes off to the left. He has an open path to the endzone... and he slips. The turf monster gets him. Nothing in your vicinity is safe from your rage.
There's still time, though. BYU goes three and out, and Jesse Matthews returns the punt to the BYU 36 with 1:38 to play. The Aztecs get it to the 7-yard line with 33 seconds to go, and it's 2nd and 5. Incomplete pass. 3rd and 5. Incomplete pass. Wait, they're ruling it a fumble? OK, good, they reversed it. 4th and 5. And that's when it happens. Dallas Fincher, the snapper, rolls the ball between his legs. It looks more like an unconventional bowling strategy than a snap. And Jordon Brookshire, apparently forgetting that it's 4th down and that they're down 14 with 20 seconds to go, falls on the ball instead of trying to pick it up and make a play.
BYU takes the knee, and your Journey to Atlantis has become a journey to the garbage can to throw up.
4. BYU vs. Baylor 2022, Baylor +3.5: You notice 21st ranked BYU is favored to beat 9th ranked Baylor (which by the way, they actually were) and you're thinking, "Are you kidding? I'm totally taking the higher ranked team +3.5. That's a steal." There's 13 seconds left, it's 20-20, and BYU's dependable kicker Jake Oldroyd is on for a 35-yard game-winner. If he makes it, Baylor covers, and you're on your way to Waco, Nebraska. So naturally, he misses, and the game goes to overtime. Keep in mind that part of the reason the score was tied to begin with was because Baylor's Isaiah Hankins missed an extra point in the first half, so both kickers have failed you.
Baylor gets the ball first, and they go three and out. It's a 43-yard field goal for Hankins. You want him to make it because if he does, BYU can't cover unless it goes to a second overtime. There's no way Hankins misses again,right? He misses again. OK, so now you need BYU to win with a field goal and not with a touchdown. They also go three and out. Awesome. Now you just need Jake Oldroyd to make a 37-yard field goal. There's no reason he also misses again right? He also misses again. You kick the TV, yelling about how you're kicking the TV better than the kickers are kicking the football.
BYU gets the ball to start the second overtime. This is BYU's last chance to win by more than 3.5 points because if it goes to a third overtime, it's going to the 2-pt conversion shootout. Alas, after a 20-yard reception by Keanu Hill, Lopini Katoa punches it in. The 2-pt conversion is no good, so it's now 26-20 and you need Baylor to score a touchdown. On 4th and 3 at the 18, they just barely get it. On 3rd and 3 at the 8, they just barely get it.
As Baylor's about to snap it on 3rd and 4, you see the yellow laundry, and you remember that Baylor is in the ROC end of the field, so of course it's a false start. After a three-yard completion, it's 4th and Goal at the 6. And there it is again. Another yellow piece of cloth. Another false start. Man, the ROC is good. On 4th and Goal from the 11, Blake Shapen throws it so high that Goliath couldn't have caught it, and it's over. You're not happy, and neither are any of the people you live with because it's the middle of the night, and your yell of agony woke them up.
3. BYU vs. Arizona 2024, Under 59.5: You see that the over/under for this game is 59.5, and you do your homework and figure out that in the 25 games between BYU and Arizona, the point total has never exceeded 59.5. Not once. So you're jumping on this one. At halftime, BYU's leading 14-7, putting the total at just 21. You're planning your trip to Tuxon. (That's your pronunciation of Tucson.) The start to the second half reminds you of the last time BYU played a Wildcat team at LaVell Edwards Stadium, and before you even make it back from your halftime dinner, it's 24-7.
Your worries are eased, however, when both teams seemingly forget that touchdowns are worth more than field goals. After a bunch of field goals, BYU's up 27-13. Unfortunately, with 5:38 to play, BYU finally remembers that touchdowns are a thing as LJ Martin punches it in to make it 34-13. With 2:58 to play, Arizona says, 'Oh yeah, we can do that, too," and Quali Conley punches it in to make it 34-19 before failing on the 2-point conversion.
A failed onside kick, a fumble, a turnover on downs, and a punt and pin later, Arizona's got 4th and 10 at their own 1 yard line with 1:14 to go and no timeouts. A first down is fine because Arizona still has a long way to go. A turnover on downs is fine because BYU can just take a couple knees. A safety is fine because that only gets the total to 55. Isaiah Glasker picks it off just outside the 20. Cool. That works, too. He's just going to go down, and BYU's going to take a knee, right?
No! He takes it all the way back for the touchdown! He did not need to do that! Did Glasker take the over?!? The extra point is good, making it 41-19 and putting the total at 60, and your trip to Tuscany is cancelled.
2. BYU vs. Arizona St 2021, Over 44.5: It's late in the third quarter, and BYU's leading 21-17, putting the total at 38. All you need for your over 44.5 bet is one more touchdown. You're planning your trip to Tempe to visit my brother Matt on his mission even though that doesn't make any sense because you don't even know him and he doesn't even have his mission call yet. BYU's got it at the ASU 26. Jaren Hall's screen pass is picked off by Merlin Robertson, and he's got nothing but green grass in front of him. You're about to hit your total in the 3rd quarter.
But then, out of nowhere comes Tyler Allgeier, who must have had a decimal shift in his speed rating. He strips the ball loose, and Jaren Hall recovers. You're so blown away by how awesome this play is, you're not even mad. I mean, you still have a whole quarter to get 7 points. You're totally fine.
Then, BYU spends 3 and a half minutes driving just far enough to punt and pin ASU at the 5. Then, thanks to a whopping four ASU penalties courtesy of the BYU student section, it takes the Sun Devils 5 minutes to go 9 yards. But at least if they're punting from their own 14, BYU's going to get good field position, right? No, not if Eddie Czaplicki hits an absolute rocket for 63 yards to the BYU 23.
After a 5 minute drive, BYU's got 3rd and Goal at the 3 with just over a minute to go. Jaren Hall is hurt, so Baylor Romney comes in. He stumbles, the pressure gets there, he chucks it off his back foot, and Isaac Rex catches it for the touchdown! Awesome! You got the touchdown you needed! It's 27-17, the total is 44, and all you need is the extra point.
But wait?!? Why are they lining up in victory formation?!? Who takes a knee on a PAT?!? It doesn't even occur to you till the next day that if BYU had kicked the extra point, there was a 0.0000000001% chance that ASU could've blocked it and returned it for a defensive 2-point conversion, and then it would've been a one-possession game, but that's the kind of thing you worry about when there's like 5 seconds left and it's literally the only way you can lose, not when there's 1:19 left, and ASU can now tie it with a touchdown and a field goal without having to go for 2.
ASU can't get down the field fast enough, and the clock hits zeroes with the total at 44. You try to call my brother to let him know you're cancelling, but you don't have his number because you don't even know him, so you just throw your phone on the ground.
1. BYU vs. Cincinnati 2025, Cincinnati +11.5: You're Brendan Sorsby, and you're betting on your own team. (The second I thought of that idea, I knew I absolutely had to do it.) With 4;41 to play, you're trailing 20-7, and you've got 3rd and 9 at the BYU 14. You have had six drives end inside the BYU 30 with zero ponts, and if it happens one more time, you're going to lose your mind.
You're trying to figure out a way to convince your coach to kick a field goal on 4th down so that you'll be covering the spread (as long as your stupid kicker Stephen Rusnak doesn't miss for a fourth time) but unfortunately, you know your coach actually wants to win the game, so it's up to you to score a touchdown. When your offensive lineman, Joe Cotton, false starts to make it 3rd and 14 at the 19, you're thinking, "Man, if we end up not scoring, I'm going to do the Cotton-eye Joe dance and make sure I'm right behind Joe Cotton when it's time for the kicks." But thankfully for him, you're able to connect with Jeff Caldwell for the touchdown, making it 20-14, and now you're covering.
You watch from the sideline as BYU takes it down the field. After a 5-yard run by LJ Martin on 2nd and 2, it's now 1st and 10 at the Cincinnati 38 with 1:49 to play, your team calls their final timeout, and BYU can just take a knee. You try to pretend you're disappointed, but secretly, you start planning your trip to Las Vegas to satisfy your gambling fix.
But wait! They don't take a knee! LJ Martin runs for another 5 yards. Now will they figure out that they can just take a knee? No! LJ Martin takes it off tackle right 33 yards for a completely unnecessary touchdown! Why would they do that?!? They had the game in the bag, and now, after a failed two-point conversion, you can win it with a touchdown, an onside kick, and a touchdown. Of course, you know that you really only need to score once, so you desperately try to get down the field and score in the final minute, but you can't do it. You're not going to Sin City. You're staying in Sin Ci-na-ty.
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