Shortly after one of BYU's biggest wins in school history, BYU took the field at LaVell Edwards Stadium to face off against Arizona St. The Sun Devils turned it over in the first minute, and BYU capitalized with a touchdown. ASU scored to answer, but then BYU dominated the second quarter to go up by 14 at halftime. ASU dominated the third quarter to come back and make it close, but then in the fourth quarter, BYU had a long, sustained touchdown drive, making the score 27-17, and just about putting the game away.
And then, thanks to some really bad clock management by the home team, who was running backwards in order to run the clock out, the visiting team came dangerously close to pulling off a miracle.
By the way, in that first paragraph, I was referring to the 2021 BYU-ASU game, and in the second paragraph, I was referring to the 2024 BYU-ASU game. Did I getcha?
OK, now it's time to talk about the game that's really on our minds: The Holy War. And this one isn't just any Holy War. For the first time ever, it's a top ten match-upwith massive college football playoff implications. I don't think it would be too far-fetched to say that this is the biggest BYU football game in history.
So what does my formula say? Throughout the first half of the season, it said Utah would win. But then, thanks to the Notre Dame win, it said BYU would win in each of the last two weeks. However, Utah's win over Cincinnati this weekend was a lot more impressive than BYU's win over Arizona St, and because my formula weighs each team's three most recent games twice as heavily as all the others, the Iowa St win, which my formula loved because BYU had 8.3 yards per play to Iowa St's 3.6, is no longer being weighted as heavily as it was before. Will that be enough to sway my prediction back to the Utes?
Yes it will. It says Utah will win 28-26.
It gets even sadder. My formula still says BYU is slightly better than Utah and that they would win on a neutral field, so if there was a second Holy War in the Big 12 title game, BYU would win, and that would be awesome. However, it says BYU won't make it to the Big 12 title game. While it does say that they will beat Baylor 26-20 (same score as 2022) and beat Cincinnati 35-26 (almost the same score as 2023), it says they will lose to Kansas 26-25. That will give them a 6-3 Big 12 record.
I simulated every remaining Big 12 game, and BYU ended up in a four-way tie for second behind Utah, but Arizona had the tie-breaker. Being left out of the Big 12 title game because of a late loss to Kansas and an unfavorable four-way tie-breaker? That sounds familiar.
However, my formula is not accounting for the potential return of LJ Martin, and there's something my formula does not know: I am not left-handed. How is that relevant? Because of my dog, Wooford Woodwoof.
For those of you who haven't seen my recent articles, I've started having Woofie make predictions for each BYU football game. I tell him to lick my right hand if he thinks BYU will win and my left hand if he thinks their opponent will win, and I tell him to lick once for every point he thinks his team of choice will win by. The reason I always have my right hand represent BYU is because Woofie tends to lick it more often than he licks my left-hand, probably because I'm right-handed, meaning my right hand touches food more often than my left hand does.
(By the way, I have to share a hilarious typo I made while typing that paragraph. I said, "I tell him to lick my right hand if he thinks BYU will win and my left hand if he thinks their opponent will lose." That's one way to guarantee that he'll pick BYU to win. I've also thought about making my right hand greasy and buttery on purpose.)
In the three games Woofie has predicted so far this season, he has been sensational. He said BYU would beat Notre Dame by 7, and they won by 4. He said they would lose to UCF by 1, and they lost by 8 in double-overtime. He said they would beat Arizona St by 9, and they won by 7. On average, he's only been off by 4 points, and he's the only person I know of who went 3-0 in that stretch. By comparison, my formula was 2-1 in those games, and it was off by an average of 8 points, and that's still significantly better than what most experts have done.
Woofie's named after Wilford Woodruff, who Latter-day Saints believe to have been a prophet of God. Woofie must be a prophet of Dog.
And his prediction is: BYU by 6! The prophet of Dog has spoken! Go ahead and start preparing your early afternoon celebration party and your trash-talking texts!
Clearly, my formula can't compete with Woofie, but what about Dick Harmon of the Deseret News? That's right. It's time for our weekly competition. Here are my predictions from last week, and here are his.
For each game where both of us made a prediction, whoever got closest in terms of the point spread (or whoever picked the correct team if we picked different teams) gets 2 points, with potential bonuses of +4 for the BYU game, +2 for the Utah game, +2 for ranked matchups, +2 for nonconference Big 12 vs P4 games, x2 if we picked different teams, and x2 if we got it exactly right.
Whoever gets the closest in terms of the point total gets 1 point, with potential bonuses of +2 for the BYU game, +1 for the Utah game, +1 for ranked matchups, +1 for nonconference Big 12 vs P4 games, x2 if our predicted point totals were at least 15 ponts apart, and x2 if we got it exactly right.
(By the way, that means that the Holy War will be worth 10 points for the spread and 5 points for the total, and it could be worth even more if Harmon picks BYU, if our point totals are at least 15 points apart, or if one of us gets the spread or the total exactly right.)
(Also, here's another "by the way". This is unlikely to make a difference, but starting next week, the ranked matchup bonus will be based on the CFP rankings, not the AP poll. I wanted to clarify that ahead of time so it won't look like I cheated.)
I currently lead the season series 5-3. Can I go from trailing 2-0 to doubling him up? Let's find out.
Game | My formula's prediction | Harmon's prediction | Actual Score | Point spread winner (+2) | Point spread bonuses | Point total winner (+1) | Point total bonuses | My points | Harmon's points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Notre Dame vs Navy | ND 37-24 | ND 38-9 | ND 35-13 | Harmon | None | Harmon | None | 0 | 3 |
Arizona vs Texas Tech | Arizona 30-27 | Arizona 28-24 | Tech 34-26 | Me | +2 (ranked vs ranked) | Me | +1 (ranked vs ranked) | 6 | 0 |
Oklahoma St vs Iowa St | OSU 38-29 | OSU 24-21 | ISU 51-49 | Harmon | None | Me | x2 (disagreed by at least 15) | 2 | 2 |
Auburn vs Ole Miss | Ole Miss 32-23 | Ole Miss 31-21 | Ole Miss 45-15 | Harmon | None | Me | None | 1 | 2 |
Kansas St vs Colorado | Colorado 30-25 | KSU 17-13 | Colorado 27-24 | Me | x2 (picked different teams) | Me | x2 (disagreed by at least 15) | 6 | 0 |
Florida vs Georgia | Georgia 34-23 | Georgia 34-21 | Georgia 27-8 | Harmon | +2 (ranked vs ranked) | Harmon | +1 (ranked vs ranked) | 0 | 6 |
Northwestern vs Oregon | Oregon 28-20 | NW 27-21 | Oregon 34-26 | Me | x2 (picked different teams) x2 (exactly right) | Tie | None | 8 | 0 |
Kansas vs TCU | TCU 29-18 | TCU 21-17 | TCU 22-16 | Harmon | None | Harmon | x2 (exactly right) | 0 | 4 |
Colorado St vs Utah St | USU 33-26 | USU 17-14 | USU 31-14 | Me | None | Tie | x2 (disagreed by at least 15) | 2 | 0 |
Utah vs Cincinnati | Utah 34-32 | Utah 31-24 | Utah 49-25 | Harmon | +2 (Utah game) | Me | +1 (Utah game) | 2 | 4 |
Arizona St vs BYU | BYU 33-19 | BYU 34-14 | BYU 27-20 | Me | +4 (BYU game) | Harmon | +2 (BYU game) | 6 | 3 |
And the final score is... Harmon 24 Me 33! That puts me up 6-3. I've now won 6 of the last 7 against the man whose predictions I grew up reading, and I'm not even upset that I just said those two numbers.
Here are my formula's predictions for this week:
TCU 23 Arizona 27
BYU 26 Utah 28
Iowa St 22 Baylor 32
Texas 22 Missouri 20
Oklahoma St 33 Kansas St 34
Alabama 19 LSU 29
Cincinnati 33 Houston 41
Oregon 20 Ohio St 28
UCF 24 Kansas 31
Boise St 42 Colorado St 31
Kentcuky 18 Tennessee 24
Colorado 25 Arizona St 27
Iowa 23 Northwestern 24
Miami 23 Notre Dame 35
Michigan St 14 Michigan 23
Georgia 25 Ole Miss 28
Oklahoma 21 Florida 26
Fresno St 17 Utah St 28
West Virginia 30 Texas Tech 42
And now, for the statement I make at the end of every article that will be especially relevant this weekend: remember to be kind to the officials.
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