As the BYU football season draws ever nearer, our imaginations as fans start to work overtime, imagining all of the possible ways the year could play out. The optimistic side of our brains imagines improving on last year's 11-2 campaign and No. 13 ranking. The pessimist within us tempers expectations, remembering that we've been burned before by getting our hopes up too high.
Today we are going to indulge both sides of our brains by taking a realistic look at the best case scenario for Kalani Sitake's program in 2025, while also exploring how the season could unravel in the worst case scenario.
Best case scenario: Big 12 champions and College Football Playoff berth
This statement is objectively true: The BYU Cougars can win the Big 12 in 2025.
Last year BYU went 7-2 in Big 12 play and finished in a four-way tie for first place in the conference. They were only excluded from the conference championship game by arbitrary tie-break rules. Had two plays gone differently in the loss to Kansas - Jake Retzlaff's poorly-thrown end zone interception and a surprise Jayhawks pooch punt that hit a BYU player's helmet - and the Cougars would have been in the conference championship game.
While Aaron Roderick's offense surprisingly lost quarterback Jake Retzlaff this year, the team is still viewed in some corners among the conference favorites. The USA Today Coaches Poll recently ranked the Cougars No. 23 in the nation and fourth in the conference, trailing Arizona State (No. 11), Kansas State (20), and Iowa State (22).
While much of the focus is on BYU's quarterback, what often goes overlooked is that Jay Hill turned the Cougars into the best defense in the Big 12 last year. BYU's defensive line will be better than last year's version. Transfer defensive tackles Keanu Tanuvasa and Justin Kirkland could form the best tandem interior defensive line the Cougars have seen in years. BYU's linebackers could be the best in the conference, while the safeties are talented and deep.
The big "if" in the best case scenario of winning the Big 12 will mostly come down to quarterback play. While losing Jake Retzlaff hurts, it's not fatal. Jake wasn't a Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady-type quarterback who elevated his team to a Top 15 ranking behind his golden arm. He was a game manager who averaged 227 passing yards per game while completing 58% of his passes.
And let's not forget the third element to the game in special teams. BYU has one of the nation's best kickers in Will Ferrin while returner Parker Kingston proved last year he can take punts to the house.
If BYU's new quarterback can find his footing before the team begins Big 12 play, the Cougars could very well win the Big 12 this year. Their defense is outstanding. Special teams is superb.
If the offense can simply be slightly above average, Kalani Sitake can lead this team to the College Football Playoffs.
Worst case scenario: BYU replicates the University of Utah's dismal 2024 campaign
BYU's biggest question mark is quarterback play.
Last year the University of Utah proved how quickly promising preseason dreams can be dashed and a season can quickly spiral into the toilet with shaky quarterback play.
When Utah joined the Big 12 in 2024 there were more than a few loud voices proclaiming Utah would "run the Big 12". After all, excluding the Covid-shortened 2020 season, the Utes had gone 11-3 in 2019, 10-4 in 2021, and 10-4 in 2022. In 2023 the Utes managed to go 8-5 despite losing quarterback Cam Rising for the entire season, and they expected their veteran signal caller back for their 2024 season.
But last year Rising appeared in just three games, attempting just 66 passes. Behind a rotating cast of inexperienced quarterbacks the Utes struggled to a 2-7 conference record that included a seven-game losing streak.
Like BYU this year, Utah's team last year had a stout defense.
Like BYU this year, the Utes had a stable, experienced, highly-successful coaching staff.
Like BYU this year, Utah entered the season last year with aspirations of winning the Big 12 and reaching the CFP.
Like the Cougars this year, the Utes unexpectedly lost their veteran quarterback and were forced to relay on unproven players at the game's most important position.
The worst case scenario for this year's BYU football team is a nightmarish repeat of Utah's season last year. If BYU's largely inexperienced, unproven quarterbacks can't get the job done, the 2025 campaign could turn into a slog of low-scoring, frustrating losses.
The quickest way for football teams to derail is by having an impotent offense. Teams that repeatedly go three-and-out exhaust their defense, can't flip field position, and are constantly playing from behind. This could happen to a BYU offense that will be led by a quarterback that has never started a game at the Power Four level.
My hope, of course, is the best case scenario plays out for this year's BYU Cougars.
Until proven otherwise, this team is winning the Big 12 and going to the College Football Playoffs.