With round 1 of March Madness tipping off in just a few days, people around the country are obsessing over seed lines, upsets, and analytics in hopes of gaining some sort of insight for their personal bracket or their favorite team’s chances to make it out of the first weekend.
BYU earned a berth as a 6 seed in the East region, a quadrant of the bracket that presents some nice benefits, but also plenty of danger. Of course, only the first matchup matters as of now, but if BYU can finally get out of the first round, it’d be nice to know what’s ahead.
Tough Draw vs VCU (But Great Location)
If you haven’t heard yet, VCU is a dangerous team. Regarded as the best 11 seed across a number of websites including Kenpom and EvanMiya, the Rams have one of the best backcourts in the tournament with senior guards Joe Bamisile and Max Shulga, the A-10 player of the year. They’re not the best shooting team outside of Shulga, but they’ll still take a ton of shots from deep (8th most in the tournament) to keep pace with BYU.
Defense is where they win games, though. They have the 2nd best 2-point defense in the field, force turnovers at a high rate, and often use a full-court press. Down low, Keba Keita and Fousseyni Traore will have to battle with Luke Bamgboye, who is not only one of the best shot-blockers in the country (2.2 per game), but one that does it without fouling too.
It’s not a great draw for the Cougars, as VCU is thought to be one of the most under-seeded teams in the tournament. But on the bright side, BYU will be playing the opening weekend in Denver, Colorado. It won’t be the Marriott Center, but Cougar fans in Colorado, Utah, and the other surrounding western states, as well as the shorter travel time, should give BYU an advantage this weekend.
The East Could Lack Upsets
Predicting upsets in March Madness is a fool’s errand of the highest degree, but we all try to do it anyway. This year, the “trendy” upset picks are mostly in the other three regions. UC San Diego, Yale, Colorado State, High Point, and McNeese State have all been dispersed elsewhere in the bracket.
Outside of VCU, Liberty is probably the next trendiest team in the East region, but Dana Altman very often sees even his average Oregon teams advance to the second weekend. Some will pick Akron beating Arizona, but the Zips have by far the lowest metrics of the 13 seeds. In addition, the East’s 1 seed, Duke, got a favorable draw, avoiding some of the more dangerous 8/9 seeds like Louisville, Gonzaga, and UConn.
Wisconsin in the Second Round
Unable to play Iowa State (played them twice) and unlikely to play Texas Tech (played them once), the 3 seed who ended up next to BYU came down to Wisconsin and Kentucky. And while that hypothetical Kentucky game sounds awesome for a variety of reasons, it will be a second round matchup with the Badgers should both teams advance.
Like BYU, Wisconsin has a great offense built around shooting (and making) a lot of threes. Unlike BYU, however, the Wisconsin offense draws strength in rarely turning the ball over. Perimeter defenders like Richie Saunders and Trey Stewart will need to step up in order to pressure the Badgers, force some turnovers, and make them go inside, where BYU will have an advantage with Keita and Fouss.
Individually, John Tonje leads the Badgers with 19.2 points per game on 46.4/58.8/90.8 shooting splits. He has a strong all around game and can score at all three levels. Should BYU fall behind, he’s not the guy you want to foul. In fact, the Cougars won’t want to fall behind late in this one at all, as Wisconsin is the best free throw shooting team in the nation, making over 82% of their shots from the line.
The Rest of the Region
While VCU and Wisconsin are the most important teams in the region for BYU, it wouldn’t hurt to look at the rest of the bracket. We can breathe a collective sigh of relief that Houston isn’t atop the region, although Duke is arguably better and is the favorite to cut down the nets.
Alabama is a deadly team in a potential Sweet 16 matchup, but their extremely fast tempo does make them more vulnerable to an upset, as it is typically teams with a medium, more adaptable tempo that go the furthest. If the Tide do fall early, BYU will have a chance for a WCC reunion with Saint Mary’s in the Sweet Sixteen, another interesting matchup.
As of now, Duke is the favorite to advance out of the region to the Final Four, with a 54.2% chance to do so, according to EvanMiya. Then it's Alabama at 20.5%, Wisconsin at 7.6%, Arizona at 7.2%, Saint Mary's at 3.0%, VCU at 2.5%, and finally, BYU at 2.3%.
It's certainly Duke's region to lose at this point, but that all can change in a few short weeks. For BYU, the mission remains to get past VCU, then upset Wisconsin. It's time for the Cougars to validate their successful season, and getting to the second weekend should do just that.