When BYU basketball was confirmed as a six-seed in the official NCAA Tournament bracket, I wasn't surprised. A rocky start to the year left the Cougars with gravel to climb behind the rocket-powered best of the best above them. The sixth spot is fine.
I just don't love who they were matched up with.
The VCU Rams. Champions of the A-10 Conference, winners of 28 games, and losers of only six. This is a team that prides itself on a powerful defensive front. A Top-25 defensive rating as their foundation, this Rams squad has won 18 of its last 20 games on the way to a tournament championship, and their offensive rating is nothing to sneeze at either.
I know you've already sent BYU through to the National Championship on your bracket, but let's take a moment to learn the other side of this story before we embrace our wildest fantasies. Put the blue whipped cream away.
Know the Foe: VCU
NET Rating: 31
Kenpom Rating: 30
Best Win: Colorado State (47 NET)
Worst Loss: Seton Hall (211 NET)
First-place finishers in the Atlantic-10, VCU dominated their league throughout the entire season with its stingy defense and excellent execution. The Rams only lost three conference games in an overlooked A-10 that boasts proud squads the likes of Dayton, George Mason, and Loyola Chicago.
Here's the biggest question, however: how do you compare the resume of two teams in completely different worlds and hope to come away with tangible evidence of one team's superiority? Obviously, BYU has faced more top-25 competition, but at what point does this equate to a "bet on it" type of win?
It's March Madness, though, and we'll cling to any metric we can to crudely declare a moral victor before the first game has even tipped off.
We'll all be wrong in the end, anyway.
BYU vs VCU Head-to Head
VCU Rams
Win % vs. Q1&2: 61.5% (8-5)
Strength of Schedule: 92
Ranked Wins: 0
BYU Cougars
Win % vs. Q1&2: 60.9% (14-9)
Strength of Schedule: 27
Ranked Wins: 4
Despite VCU's impressive NET and Kenpom scores, one major issue has arisen when grading this scrappy bunch of ballers -- they haven't really played anybody this year. Only facing three Quad-1 tier games all season, the Rams have zero ranked wins on the schedule. The loss to Seton Hall was bad -- there's no getting around that -- but this team has otherwise handled business against lesser competition.
BYU's unblemished record against Q3&4 is more than noteworthy, however, and an indication of one important factor: this team wins when it's supposed to. In fact, of BYU's nine losses, only two were delivered outside of Q1 -- Providence and TCU. Two road games before the Cougars became a different side.
Slight advantage to BYU.
VCU is a defense-first side that prides themselves on being stoppers. Eighth in scoring defense, the Rams have locked down their A-10 brethren to an average of 62.4 points per game. Here's the hiccup: BYU has faced some of the toughest defenses in the nation, and being the best defense in the A-10 does not mean they'd be a top-half defensive side in a league akin to the Big 12.
Not to say that BYU will win purely based on their conference affiliation, but the Cougars have already dealt with the likes of Houston (the literal devil on defense), Iowa State, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, and more. Obviously, the battles with Houston didn't go well, but VCU would not be an 11 seed if they were Houston. BYU is battle-tested and peaking at the right moment.
Advantage BYU.
All indications suggest that -- at least on paper -- this is BYU's game to lose. One of basketball's most prolific offenses capable of lighting up a defense from outside or inside, Head Coach Kevin Young has his team ready to play and ready to run through the tournament.
If BYU can continue its ascent, VCU may be in for a world of pain. The Cougars will be a popular pick to make a run this March.